Yet another analysis predicts that economic growth will not keep pace with the office-building boom in Orange County, creating a glut of offices.
The forecast by Bank of America, presented Wednesday, agrees with earlier predictions by economists and local real estate experts. The economic slowdown is occuring nationwide, a natural end to the 27-month recovery. But, the bank economists said, the tapering off also reflects the strength of the dollar, which is making locally produced high-tech products less competitive on the world market, said bank officials.
Orange County's employment expanded by 6.7% last year, boosted by 77,000 new jobs, but is expected to grow by only 3.5% this year. Still, that level of growth exceeds the bank's employment growth forecast of 3.2% for the state and 2.3% for the nation.
Bank of America Vice President and senior economist Duane A. Paul, who wrote the economic forecast, said he expects Orange County home construction to decline in response to reduced job growth and climbing interest rates. He estimated that 16,500 residential building permits will be issued in the county in 1985, down 3.5% from the 1984 level.