The San Diego Unified School District, which has spent much of the last four years closing schools because of declining student enrollment, is preparing for a population boom that will force lasting educational changes in parts of the city through the turn of the century.
The rapid growth--fueled by continuing migration to the Sun Belt, more refugees and a "baby boomlet" among the generation born just after World War II--will force school officials to examine how children are taught, how to build enough classrooms to teach them in, who will teach them and how to pay for it all.
"We're out of the decline area and we should be thinking growth," said Ruben Carriedo, director of planning for the school district. "We should convince the general public that we are entering an area of growth like we had in the 1950s and 1960s."
After 13 years of declining enrollment, San Diego's schools registered an increase in student population in 1983-84. Demographers hired by the school district estimate that, by the year 2000, about 156,000 students will attend city schools, up from 113,000 today. The district will surpass its previous enrollment high by 1990, when an estimated 130,000 children will be going to school in San Diego.
The most growth is expected in four regions where overcrowding is already a problem: Mira Mesa and Scripps Ranch (Mira Mesa High School area); the South Bay (Morse High School area); Southeast San Diego (Lincoln High School, San Diego High School and Morse High School areas), and Mid-City (Hoover High School area).
At the same time, schools in established areas without new residents or young parents will continue to be under-used. In Serra Mesa, between California 163 and Interstate 15 north of Mission Valley, for example, Cubberley Elementary School has an enrollment of 253, about 200 under its capacity. Nearby, Wegeforth Elementary School, which was built for420 students, now has just 251 students. Clairemont High School, with 1,258 students, is far below its capacity.
The district, which has closed 18 schools in the last four years, may close more in the future even though total enrollment is surging, said Linda Sturak, schools utilization coordinator.
"If we had all of our wishes, the kids would be growing up where we have the schools," Carriedo said. "Unfortunately, the numbers are appearing in places where we haven't had them before."
The school system has begun a massive citywide study designed to forecast how many new schools the district will need, where unexpected growth may occur, how many teachers will be required and how to fund the changes. This fall, the committee will advise the Board of Education on alternatives, which could include construction, redrawing boundary lines, or busing students.
Facilities are the primary question, Supt. Thomas W. Payzant said. While the district has yet to determine how much construction and renovation will have to be done citywide, the San Diego County Office of Education predicts that an enrollment increase of 89,000 students will require the construction of 84 elementary schools, 23 junior high schools and 12 senior high schools countywide by 1995. Total cost is estimated at $750 million.
That is just a fraction of the spending needed statewide. According to the California Commission on the Teaching Profession, it will cost $6.35 billion to fund the current backlog of school construction applications, rehabilitate old school buildings and handle projected student growth for the next 10 years.
A community study shows that the Mira Mesa area needs an estimated $50 million in new school buildings, plus expansion and renovation of some existing schools.
The school district also will need $11 million for improvements at four Mid-City elementary schools. It has already spent $10.6 million to open two new elementary schools in South Bay and a middle school in Tierrasanta this fall.
The effects of overcrowding already are plain in those areas. Mira Mesa High, San Diego's most populous school, opened in 1976 with 1,560 students, virtually filled to capacity. Today, with 3,412 students, its 53 temporary classrooms outnumber its 52 permanent ones.
Row upon row of the temporary classrooms have usurped about one-third of the student parking lot. Shabby and in need of paint, the bungalows are an eyesore, Principal Jim Vlassis said.
"They've been like this for years," Vlassis said. "How can you get kids to take pride in this?"
To relieve overcrowding, a storage closet has been converted into a weight-lifting room. A teacher's lounge has been converted into a classroom, and classes are held in projection rooms and closed-circuit television rooms.
"Next year, if we don't get more bungalows, we're going to have to have classes meeting in the foyer of the gym," Vlassis said.
Research shows that large classes affect learning because students receive less personal attention, said Linda Bond, executive director of the California Commission on the Teaching Profession.
