WASHINGTON — Just 46 counties across the nation will be the site of more than one new job in three between now and the turn of the century, a new economic study projects.
Total U.S. job growth is expected to be 25.1 million between 1987 and the year 2000, with 9.4 million of those jobs concentrated in the 46 counties, according to the report from NPA Data Services Inc.
The Washington-based research firm said the 46 counties will all have job increases of 100,000 or more, led by Los Angeles, which is expected to gain some 805,000 new jobs in that period.
Los Angeles is also the county expected to see the nation's largest overall population growth in the time span, and most of those counties with top job prospects are those with leading population growth, the study commented.
Among the largest anticipated increases in employment will be in large counties adjacent to major metropolitan centers, such as Orange and Santa Clara counties in California, Fairfax County, Va., and Middlesex, Mass., the report said.
"Very large proportions of growth in both population and employment have been occurring in a relatively small number of counties. This pattern is projected to continue into the future," said the report by Carlton M. Strong and Nestor E. Terleckyj.
While many metropolitan areas are gaining populations, changes in the economic structure of those regions are occurring with the movement of job growth to the suburbs, the report observes.
In recent years, the arrangement of major metropolitan areas has been changing from one of concentration on a single business and industrial center to a more circular and sprawling arrangement.
This large-scale decentralization of regional business areas has resulted in increased inter-suburb commuting and has increased the access to jobs for residents of outer suburbs and non-metropolitan counties, according to the study.
Substantial job and population growth is anticipated to continue in these suburban inner-ring counties, the study concludes, although it adds that the fastest rates of growth can be expected in the more distant outer rings of metropolitan areas.
Here is a rundown of the counties where employment growth is expected to be greatest between now and the year 2000, and the number of jobs each is expected to gain, in thousands:
County . . . Jobs Los Angeles . . . 805 Orange, Calif. . . . 621 Harris, Tex. . . . 560 Dallas, Tex. . . . 428 Maricopa, Ariz. . . . 403 San Diego, Calif. . . . 398 Santa Clara, Calif. . . . 342 Broward, Fla. . . . 256 Dade, Fla. . . . 245 Cook, Ill. . . . 234 King, Wash. . . . 219 Fairfax, Va. . . . 204 Middlesex, Mass. . . . 187 Oakland, Mich. . . . 186 Palm Beach, Fla. . . . 184 Suffolk, N.Y. . . . 179 Hennepin, Minn. . . . 171 Du Page, Ill. . . . 165 Bexar, Tex. . . . 165 Tarrant, Tex. . . . 164 Montgomery, Md. . . . 161 St. Louis, Mo. . . . 160 Orange, Fla. . . . 156 Sacramento, Calif. . . . 153 Franklin, Ohio . . . 150 Travis, Tex. . . . 149 Hillsborough, Fla. . . . 133 Clark, Nev. . . . 133 Pinellas, Fla. . . . 133 Nassau, N.Y. . . . 129 Arapahoe, Colo. . . . 126 San Francisco,Calif. . . . 126 Salt Lake, Utah . . . 126 Alameda, Calif. . . . 121 De Kalb, Ga. . . . 115 Contra Costa, Calif. . . . 113 Pima, Ariz. . . . 113 San Brnrdino, Calif. . . . 111 Honolulu, Hawaii . . . 108 Middlesex, N.J. . . . 107 Fulton. Ga. . . . 106 Hartford, Conn. . . . 106 Jefferson, Colo. . . . 106 Riverside, Calif. . . . 102 Cobb, Ga. . . . 101 Ventuna, Calif. . . . 100