MOSCOW — Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev is trying to drag the Soviet economy into the 20th Century before the 21st Century arrives. But as he prepares to meet with President Bush this weekend, his nation's horse-and-buggy economy is mired ever deeper in the mud.
Soviet economic growth this year is only 1%, according to official statistics, and Western economists are predicting no growth or even an economic contraction next year. Wages are rising about eight times faster than productivity.
Gorbachev's partial reforms have only aggravated some of the systemic problems of the Soviet economy. As expectations have risen, so has social discontent--rapidly and dangerously. With winter approaching, there are severe shortages of most foodstuffs and other daily necessities, of manufactured consumer goods and fuel.
Yet, Gorbachev is not going to the meeting with Bush holding out a tin cup. Although Bush has said he wants Gorbachev's reforms to succeed, the Soviets say they have no plans to seek his help.
Foreign Minister Eduard A. Shevardnadze, announcing the summit meeting at a Moscow press conference on Oct. 31, flushed with indignation when an American reporter asked him about U.S. assistance for the Soviets' restructuring campaign, which is known in Russian as \o7 perestroika\f7 .
"I shall say frankly that when (people) say, 'Help the Soviet Union,' our national self-esteem is wounded," he said, "because we have everything to implement the plans for \o7 perestroika \f7 and to carry to a logical conclusion what has been begun."
Soviet officials insist that the United States was responsible for placing the issue of the Soviet economy on the summit meeting's prospective agenda--and they are not happy about it. But Bush aides say the Soviets were responsible because Gorbachev wants to open an economic relationship with the United States. The view in Washington is that Gorbachev needs all the help he can get.
"The problems confronting Gorbachev are ever more intractable, and he faces an internal crisis of enormous magnitude," a White House official said.
Another White House official said: "His prospects for achieving his program are waning." While Gorbachev's new economic program appears bold on paper, he said, "he has been retreating from major elements of economic \o7 perestroika\f7 " in practice.
