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In Spite of Inflation, Prices of Many Assets Are Falling

Economy: Rising energy costs fuel increases. But real estate, precious metals and other items are dropping.

October 31, 1990|JONATHAN PETERSON, TIMES STAFF WRITER

All the attention to rising energy costs is overshadowing a peculiar new trait of the U.S. economy: It is displaying a split personality when it comes to inflation.

Even as oil prices have dominated the headlines, prices for some raw materials, real estate, precious metals and other assets have been falling in the slumping economy. For these and other reasons, today's inflation flare-up could prove less painful than past episodes.


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"The impact of the oil shock on inflation is temporary," predicted Mickey D. Levy, chief economist at CRT Government Securities in New York.

You might not know it from recent statistics. In August and September, the consumer price index jumped to a 9.5% annual rate. Wholesale prices took their greatest short-term leap in a decade, according to the Labor Department. Consumer inflation, measured for the final three months of this year, may hit a 10% annual rate.

Moreover, energy costs are certain to boost inflation for various goods and services in the coming months.

"For the first time in 10 years, inflation is rising toward double digits," said Allen Sinai, chief economist with The Boston Co.

Yet there is a paradox. When the volatile factors of energy and food are not considered, September consumer prices rose at a more modest 4% rate. The statistic underscores the important differences between today's oil shock and past bouts of inflation, including public psychology, the sluggish economy and policies of the Federal Reserve Board.

While oil prices have been rising, prices for a wide range of assets have been sliding in the United States and other countries.

"The undertow that we have in the economy right now isn't inflation--it's deflation," said John Rutledge, chairman of the Claremont Economic Institute.

What is more, these trends are not likely to change dramatically, as some customers scale back their purchases in a time of recession fears.

A recent episode in the paper industry helps show why economic conditions may not lend themselves to higher prices.

On Oct. 1, major producers of paper products announced a $30-per-ton increase in prices for linerboard, a material used to make corrugated boxes. But the customers--box makers and other manufacturers--have rejected the attempt, citing the weak economy and the large supply of linerboard that remains available.

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