This week's dizzying crash of energy prices, if sustained, has raised the novel prospect of an oil shock in reverse--a development that might hurt the oil industry but give consumers an unexpected boost and ease an oppressive burden on businesses that depend on energy.

Prices have fallen steeply because Saudi Arabia and other oil producers turned on the oil spigot so forcefully after Iraq invaded Kuwait that a glut has developed. Barring unforeseen damage to Saudi oil facilities, economists and industry officials now expect oil prices to plunge until the glut is absorbed.

"I see a slide steadily downward in the spring months, reaching a low in June ofabout $15 and bottoming out there," said Fareed Mohamedi, senior economist at Petroleum Finance Co. in Washington.

More important, the price plunge symbolizes a fundamental change brought about by the Persian Gulf War: It appears to be strengthening the hand of oil producers friendly to the United States, notably Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia, analysts say, will be the primary beneficiary if war diminishes the role of Iraq, once the leading advocate of high world oil prices. Before the gulf crisis, Saudi Arabia was the leading voice for moderate oil prices and closer ties with consuming nations.

"If Saddam Hussein is deflated, a good part of OPEC, Saudi Arabia particularly, owes us something because we did it," maintains Stephen H. Axilrod, vice chairman, Nikko Securities Co. International. "They certainly don't owe us a big increase in the price of oil."

Should oil prices fall too far, that could cut oil production profits and remove the financial incentive to drill for new oil, especially in the United States.

"I think $22 to $24 a barrel oil is a level the oil industry can live with, and that would stimulate production again . . . and have a leveling impact on demand too," said George H. Babikian, president of Atlantic Richfield Co.'s refining and marketing unit.

Prices as low as $12 or $15 a barrel, as some economists project, could raise the specter of the mid-1980s, when a collapse of oil prices put 26,000 oil wells out of business and drove U.S. oil production down by 10%.

No one expects a replay of those times. And the oil industry doesn't want to see one.

"It would be bad for this country, though it might stimulate the economy, because it would result in profligate use of energy" that would again increase dependence on imports, Babikian said.