SACRAMENTO — Three seats in the state Legislature are at stake in special elections Tuesday, one of which could give Senate Democrats--at least numerically--the advantage needed to overturn vetoes of Republican Gov. Pete Wilson.
A light turnout is expected in Northern California districts for one seat in the Assembly and another in the Senate. In Orange County, a slightly heavier turnout is forecast for the Senate seat left vacant when John Seymour of Anaheim was appointed to the U.S. Senate.
Of the two Senate races, Democrats see the contest in the north as their best hope of increasing their numbers to 27 in the 40-member chamber, the number of votes needed for a veto override. The Democratic candidate is Patti Mattingly, a supervisor in Siskiyou County who is running in a district that sprawls from Sacramento to the Oregon line.
Mattingly, a conservative Democrat running in a Republican district, is opposed by GOP Assemblyman Tim Leslie, the handpicked choice of Wilson. Leslie moved his residence from Carmichael to Auburn so he could run for the Senate. The seat was vacated by the election of Republican John T. Doolittle to Congress.
"We've got a good shot in Mattingly," said Senate Leader David A. Roberti (D-Los Angeles). "We're doing everything we can to elect her." He refused to rate her odds.
Senate Republican Leader Ken Maddy of Fresno said he believed the odds are in favor of the better-financed Leslie, "but Sen. Roberti and the Democratic Party have pulled more than one surprise on us. I'm cautiously optimistic."
In theory, 27 Senate Democrats would seem to constitute a serious challenge to Wilson's veto power, especially on a political self-interest issue such as legislative reapportionment. But historically, the Senate has been less partisan than the Assembly and its members tend to make deals that cross party lines.
On controversial actions requiring 27 votes, Roberti cannot always count on all 26 Democrats to vote as a bloc and must turn to moderate Republicans and the independent, Sen. Quentin L. Kopp of San Francisco, to provide the votes.
Even though a Mattingly victory probably would not dramatically alter the political chemistry of the Senate, Roberti said it would "give Democrats some negotiating leverage" with the governor.
Even if the Senate voted to override a Wilson veto, it takes two houses to enact a law over the governor's objection. Barring some unforeseen circumstance, there is no indication that the deeply divided Assembly would go along with a veto override.
