NEW ORLEANS — The European leaders who huddled at Maastricht this month produced either a major milestone in history, or a hollow PR triumph. It will be several years before anybody knows which.

The agreement \o7 looks \f7 historic. Although British resistance led the Europeans to drop a controversial reference to a "federal" political union in Europe, the 12 members of the European Community are planning, by the end of this decade, to use the same money and to speak with one voice in international affairs.

The Bush Administration gamely welcomed the progress at Maastricht. After all, Europe's divisions dragged this country into two world wars, and common action by Western Europe may be the best hope to prevent catastrophe in the East. But the Maastricht agreements will create several problems for the United States in the next 10 years.

In the short run, the agreement to move toward a common European currency involves a commitment by all the European countries to bring down inflation, regardless of the economic pain. This means the stagnant U.S. economy cannot look to European markets as a major growth opportunity in the next few years. From now on, the perennial American pleas for growth-oriented economic policy will fall on deaf ears.

In the longer term, the success of the European effort to build a common currency threatens the dollar's role as the key currency in international commerce. A single European currency is likely to be more attractive to both investors and traders than the volatile and depreciating dollar. One almost certain result: Foreign investors will demand higher interest rates before they buy U.S. Treasury debt. The U.S. national debt, already grotesquely swollen, will be an increasing drag on the living standards and economic opportunities of American families as the single European currency takes hold.

Even farther down the road, it is possible that a European union would rival U.S. power in key parts of the world--especially the Middle East, where many European powers have historic ties. The trade friction between Europe and the United States, already potentially far more destabilizing than the publicized U.S.-Japan squabbles, could become more serious still, leading to the breakup of multilateral trade agencies like the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.

But despite all the headlines, Maastricht may be just a flash in the pan. Even as the pressures for European union grow stronger, other forces threaten to derail the continent's march toward union.