HOUSTON — President Bush heads into the Republican Convention facing rejection by substantial elements of the coalition that powered his party to three consecutive presidential victories during the 1980s, The Times Poll has found.
As Republicans gather here, Bush faces widespread defections in three critical groups that Ronald Reagan cemented into the GOP coalition during the 1980s: independents; older, culturally conservative "Reagan Democrats;" and younger, more moderate GOP partisans who favor abortion rights.
Overall, the poll found Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton leading Bush by a resounding 56%-33% margin, with 9% undecided; that represents a slight widening of his lead since the end of the Democratic Convention, when The Times Poll showed the Arkansas governor with a 52%-32% advantage.
No Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 has held as large a lead on the eve of the Republican Convention as Clinton enjoys today. And his success at maintaining such a large advantage over Bush stands in stark contrast to 1988, when Democrat Michael S. Dukakis saw his 17-point post-convention lead cut substantially by the time the GOP gathered for its session in New Orleans.
The survey suggests the magnitude of the task Bush faces this week in changing voter perceptions of his own performance. Fully 82% of those surveyed said they already know enough about Bush to decide whether he deserves reelection--an ominous number for a candidate trailing so badly. By a 54%-42% count, those surveyed said it was unlikely that conditions in the nation would "improve substantially" if Bush was reelected; only 9% said such improvements were "very likely."
The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, surveyed 1,146 registered voters from Aug. 12-14; it has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Since the Democratic Convention, Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle have intensified their efforts to shift the debate to the qualifications of the Democratic ticket, arguing that Clinton is untested and "risky"; such arguments are likely to be a major focus of the GOP convention this week.
At this point, voters view Clinton favorably by a 57%-26% count. Just one out of five say his views are too liberal; twice as many say they are "about right." Voters give him roughly the same marks for honesty and integrity as the President, and more see him, rather than Bush, as likely to "bring about the changes America needs." By 65% to 27%, those surveyed say conditions are likely to improve if Clinton is elected.
