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World View : The Outer Limits? : Six geographers brainstorm the borders of the 21st Century. The changes may be among the most radical ever.


WASHINGTON — Imagine a world in which Scotland gains independence from Britain and Italy divides in half. Russia and China both fragment into a dizzying array of new states, while Canada disappears altogether. Along the way, a host of new states--including Samiland, Pushtunistan, and Zululand--are born.

And those are only a few of the possibilities that a panel of eminent political geographers predicted for the next decade as the world map is redrawn. The scope of coming changes in the world's frontiers will be among the most profound in history, they said. And the pace may set a record.

"What we're dealing with is the re-creation of countries," said William B. Wood, the State Department's chief geographer.

Over the next 25 to 30 years, the world roster may increase by 50% or more. "There'll be more than 300 countries," predicted Saul B. Cohen, past president of the Assn. of American Geographers.

Some of the changes these geographers foresee may seem logical probabilities while others appear outlandish conjectures. But they are made by men whose profession is studying the relationship of physical geography and national borders to political culture, sociology and history.

Moreover, in context, their forecasts for the turn of the century are hardly out of line. Even before the Barcelona Games were over and the 172 teams that competed there headed for home, for example, Olympic planners had started preparing for more than 200 participating states at the 1996 Atlanta Games.

Only about 60 of the world's 190 current states were around at the turn of this century, and most have become independent just since 1944. The United Nations has admitted 22 new member countries in just the last 20 months.

The political geographers don't agree on all the details of the future world map--the charts on these pages are composites based on the predictions of half a dozen experts. (See note on Page 5.)

But they do agree that recharting the globe will be the byproduct of several concurrent trends, ranging from the powerful pull of ethnicity and the spread of democracy to changes in the very concept of a modern state.

First, some borders will be altered as nations break away from traditional states, as has happened painfully in Yugoslavia over the past year and peacefully in Czechoslovakia this year.

"Borders of present countries or so-called natural boundaries will increasingly lose their importance when they do not correspond to well-recognized linguistic and territorial identities," said Fabrizio Eva, an Italian geographer.

Second, other new countries will be added as the last colonies become independent countries--the dominant trend during the second half of the 20th Century and evident most recently when the Soviet empire's collapse spawned 15 new states.

"We are now in a major new phase of demands for 'self-determination'--demands which, if all are acceded to, will result in significant changes to the world's political map at both state and sub-state levels," said David B. Knight, chairman of a special Commission on the World Political Map of the International Geographical Union (IGU).

On a third and more sweeping level, the new lines on a map will be produced by fundamental changes in the role of states, largely in response to economic and social pressures and political alienation.

Commented George Demko, a geographer and director of the Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College, "The current changes in the political and economic geography of the world are as significant as what the world went through after the Treaty of Westphalia," the 1648 peace accord ending Europe's Thirty Years War and a turning point in the rise of modern states.

"As we're challenging the traditional ideas of state sovereignty, globalizing economies and communications, and breaking up the last empires, the geography of the world is unhooking old connections and hooking up new ones. Along with borders, the dynamics and functions of states will change too."

While much of the first two phases in the global reconfiguration may take place within the next decade, this part of the process is likely to last well into the 21st Century, the geographers said.

And the countries that emerge from the process may bear little resemblance to today's states. For example, "Many states won't have armies, only police. And some (new) states will allow dual citizenship with former host countries, as in the Baltics with the Russian population, or ethnic groups with their place of origin," Cohen said.

A stratified system of governance and power is likely to replace traditional states. "At the top will be a stronger United Nations or an equivalent body responsible for peace, environment and other global issues," explained Julian Minghi, U.S. representative to the IGU Commission on the World Political Map.

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