WASHINGTON — With the ranks of uncommitted lawmakers dwindling rapidly, President Clinton embarked Monday on a final push for the North American Free Trade Agreement, declaring to small-business proprietors that only by expanding its markets can the nation increase its prosperity.
"There is no way any wealthy country in this world can increase jobs and incomes without increasing the number of people who buy that nation's products and services," Clinton told 400 small-business leaders at Washington's Museum of American History. "It is clear and self-evident."
To reassure doubters, he emphasized that the United States could pull out of the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada with six months' notice. "If all the naysayers turn out to be right, the treaty gives us a right to withdraw in six months," he said. "Why don't we just wait and see whether we're right or they're right?"
After intense lobbying during a four-day congressional recess, a smattering of lawmakers announced how they intend to vote when the agreement is taken up by the House on Wednesday. The number of new yes votes outnumbered the new noes, but they still were not enough to decide the outcome, and White House aides disagreed on how close to victory they had come.
On Monday night, the President himself acknowledged that the vote is going to be close. "I think we're going to make it," he said. "But it's going to be another landslide in paradise."
One aide said that advocates of the pact can only win if some House members who have declared their intent to vote against the agreement reverse themselves. "Some noes have to flip to yes," the aide said, adding that he expects to see several last-minute conversions.
Another White House official asserted that supporters are within 10 votes of victory. He said that some votes are likely to shift from the no to the yes column but maintained that the Administration would win even if none shift.
Meanwhile, Administration officials said that they have made progress toward an agreement to repatriate to Mexico a large number of illegal Mexican immigrants currently serving time in U.S. prisons--an action that could win the Administration several votes for the agreement, which would end virtually all trade barriers among Canada, Mexico and the United States over 15 years.
Rep. Jay C. Kim (R-Diamond Bar) last week urged President Clinton to seek the repatriation agreement. There are signs that other votes from California, Texas and Florida also might be swayed.
Leaders of the effort to win passage of the pact said that the most important new commitments are from Rep. Norman Y. Mineta (D-San Jose), Rep. Hamilton Fish Jr. (R-N.Y.), Rep. Marge Roukema (R-N.J.), Rep. Romano L. Mazzoli (D-Ky.), and Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.).
But other key votes headed to the opposition, including Rep. Thomas H. Andrews (D-Me.) and Rep. Robert G. Torricelli (D-N.J.). "They were blows," said Rep. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.), a leader of the effort to win passage.
In announcing his decision, Mineta cited Clinton's pledge that NAFTA could be abandoned if it does not work out.
"There is a provision in the agreement that allows any country to opt out with six months' notice. If this agreement turns out to be a bad deal for our country and for working men and women in the United States, I will support withdrawal . . . " Mineta said.
As Clinton continued his lobbying effort through one-on-one sessions and meetings with small groups of lawmakers, the Administration focused its attention on nervous freshmen, old-line Democrats with ties to labor and members of the Congressional Black Caucus. Rep. Maxine Water (D-Los Angeles), a longtime Clinton supporter who has been leaning against the pact, is in the last of those groups.
In back-to-back meetings with reporters, Vice President Al Gore and House Majority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) offered competing assessments of the outcome of the vote but agreed that, two days before the House acts, the issue remains extremely tight.
"It's very close," Gore said, giving the balance of power to the undecided members. "We have the momentum."
But Gephardt, who is fighting enactment of the agreement despite his position in the House Democratic leadership, declared that "today there are more votes against" the pact. He added, however, that "there are enough undecideds that it could go either way."
Gore expressed confidence that Republicans on whom Clinton is counting will not back away at the last moment and decide to vote against the agreement rather than deliver their support to a cause championed by the Democratic President.
Gephardt indicated how crucial Republican support is for Clinton on the issue. He said that--with the Republicans saying they can deliver no more than 118 votes for the agreement and Democrats promising no more than 100--there is no room to spare. If all members of the House vote on the issue, 218 votes will be needed to win passage of legislation to implement the agreement.
