WASHINGTON — Diplomatic old-speak met foreign policy new-speak in South Asia last month, revealing a hole at the heart of U.S. policy toward the region. Defense Secretary William J. Perry and Commerce Secretary Ronald H. Brown, both recently returned from India and Pakistan, sought to replace the old security-based U.S. diplomacy with commerce-based engagement.
Their visits suggest, however, that a new diplomatic approach may be appropriate for India but not for Pakistan, thus perpetuating their uneven relationships with the United States; old diplomacy is not working in Pakistan, further unbalancing U.S. foreign policy. Ultimately, what works in India may not count as foreign policy at all. In both countries, the United States may be sacrificing development of a serious policy for limited, peripheral goals that can, in the longer term, jeopardize U.S. interests.
Perry tried to put U.S. relations with both India and Pakistan on a more equal footing by agreeing to cooperate militarily with each of them. Although the pact with India falls short of providing it with access to high technology, India hopes that continuing good relations will lay the groundwork for closer military-to-military relations and expanded trade, eventually leading the United States to treat India like a burgeoning world power. Perry's agreement formalized a U.S.-India relationship that had, by virtue of tacit agreements and explicit cooperation, already changed.
But money talks. When Perry raised contentious issues like nuclear proliferation, human rights and the war in Kashmir with Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao, he did so only privately. His visit was really a prelude to Brown's, which is what India was waiting for. Accompanied by 25 U.S. businessmen, Brown signed billions of dollars of contracts covering a wide range of commercial sectors.
But old security problems, and old imbalances, don't disappear behind fond hopes. While Brown was happily increasing trade and creating jobs, Perry was struggling to find a way to improve crisis-riven Indian-Pakistani relations. Although its government faces many internal challenges, India is not inclined to alter its domestic or foreign policies. Perhaps more important, Pakistan's government is weak, its public support weaker, and its economy weaker still.
