WASHINGTON — The high casualty rate in the 1996 GOP presidential nomination race in the last month could mean the Re publican Party's search for the Un-Clinton--the political rescuer of a disenchanted America--has already narrowed to Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas vs. Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas. But maybe not--because the all-important New Hampshire primary, now just a year away, next Feb. 20, already looks like an explosive day in national politics. The whole year could be one of bombs and hand grenades.

The Republicans who have so far decided not to run include men once thought to be major 1996 players, such as Dan Quayle, Jack Kemp and Richard B. Cheney. Even House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia has announced he'll stand aside. But it's important to know if this reflects the strength of Dole and Gramm, or some other crosscurrents: The new Republican Congress, while still youthful, is starting to show major Achilles' heels; several important political precedents suggest neither Dole nor Gramm can reach the White House, and, finally, the GOP may not even have Bill Clinton to run against next year.

In short, early 1996 politics has the potential to explode in many directions. The Un-Clinton for whom Americans seem to yearn could also be some new Democrat nominated because the Little Rock Casanova retires or gets a thumbs-down in a bitter New Hampshire primary. Or maybe the ultimate Un-Clinton will be an independent candidate such as Colin L. Powell, who just indicated, with a smile, that he is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. Then again, of course, the embattled President could win next year, with 41% in a three- or four-way race--especially if the nation's desire for an Un-Clinton gives way to an even greater desire for an Un-Gingrich.

But back to Dole and Gramm. Other GOP presidential hopefuls are in the race or toying with it--including former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, Gov. Pete Wilson of California, Sen. Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, Rep. Robert K. Dornan and conservative hard-liner Patrick J. Buchanan, who seriously hurt George Bush in the 1992 primaries. Soothsayers who see a Dole-Gramm fight may be too caught up in the party's historic two-way faceoffs--including Dwight D. Eisenhower vs. Robert A. Taft, Richard M. Nixon vs. Nelson A. Rockefeller and Gerald R. Ford vs. Ronald Reagan. For Dole and Gramm both have weighty handicaps.