Truth is, a great new industry in advanced, pollution-free transportation is emerging in Southern California. "By 2010, I would expect you to be able routinely to purchase a vehicle, probably a hybrid [engine powered by electricity and gasoline] that will have energy efficiency equal to 100 miles per gallon," says Paul MacCready, chairman of AeroVironment Inc., a pioneering Monrovia company.
But as the old saying goes, "In war, the first casualty is truth." Southern Californians should keep that in mind as they listen to the shouting match now erupting over the California Air Resources Board's mandate on zero-emission vehicles. The CARB--which holds important hearings in El Monte on June 28--has ruled that 2% of the cars sold in 1998 be pollution-free, with the percentage rising from that point.
The requirement for zero-emission means, in effect, electric cars--which sounds benign enough even if it limits experiments with other fuels.
But suddenly the debate has turned malignant, with lies and distortions flying about the dangers from lead-acid batteries in the envisioned electric cars. The oil and automobile industries are financing public relations campaigns advocating a review of the mandate. And Gov. Pete Wilson is arousing fears of retreat by recommending another study of electric car technology.
The fact is, however, a review of the mandate would be useful; it needs to be more flexible.
What Southern Californians should focus on is that the goal is clean, efficient transportation--not one technology or another.
Engineers working on battery and fuel cell research at UC Davis say progress is being made but that the best products won't be ready by 1998. "The risk is that the mandate will force a bunch of lemons onto the market," says Daniel Sperling, director of UC Davis' Institute of Transportation Studies.
Zero-emission also reflects wishful thinking more than engineering knowledge, says MacCready, who has led development of solar-powered automobiles and aircraft. "Regulators who use zero in any requirement should be disqualified," he says.
Those experts and others say the mandate could be altered to allow near-zero-emission vehicles--to bring in natural gas and to experiment with hybrid engines--and it could be delayed to allow another year for development of nickel-hydride, zinc- bromine and advanced lead-acid batteries.