Italy's trade surplus grew for the third year in a row in 1995, as the lower lira and a tight lid on costs helped companies sell more machine tools, textiles and cars abroad.

Every year after World War II, Italy ran a trade deficit--until 1993. Since then, the surplus has grown rapidly so that last year the $28-billion surplus equaled 2.3% of it's gross domestic product, according to the government.

Among major economies, that's impressive--second only to Japan's 2.6%. It's all the more dramatic because Italy's GDP has been growing as well--indeed, in the last few years it has vied with Britain as the world's fifth-largest economy after the U.S., Japan, Germany and France.

Whether the surplus will continue to grow divides Italian economists, investment bankers and executives.

In a first warning sign that it might not, the government said Italy ran a $185-million deficit with countries outside the European Union in January. It was the first monthly deficit with non-EU countries in two years.

"Exports are certainly going to grow less strongly this year," said Lorenzo Stanca, chief of research at Credito Italiano International. "Part of it is the stronger lira, but the main reason is that demand is slowing in the main European economies."

France and Germany accounted for 31% of Italy's exports in 1995 and growth in both countries is slowing.

Still, no one expects Italy to run anything close to a deficit for all of 1996, and some analysts think it can improve on 1995's record surplus.

What turned around Italy's trade position was the lira's exit from the European exchange rate mechanism in September 1992 and its resulting slide.

According to the Bank of Italy's trade-weighted indexes, the lira has fallen 22.5% since 1992 against the currencies of its main trading partners.

In the second part of 1995 the lira did recover. From a low of 64 on the Bank of England's trade-weighted index, it gained to a recent 75.

"When the lira rebounds, that is when you find out which companies are totally reliant upon the weakness of the lira and which have good products, marketing, distribution and the whole works," said Stephen Peak, a fund manager at Henderson International in London, which oversees 13-billion British pounds in investments.

Among publicly traded companies, he said brake maker Brembo, machinery marker IMA, jeweler Bulgari, luxury goods company Gucci and tomato canner La Doria are likely to do well even with a stronger lira. They all export more than two-thirds of their production.