Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole begins a three-day campaign swing in California today, intending to deliver a hard-edged message against illegal immigration and taking aim at the hearts of his most conservative supporters--troops he normally should be able to take for granted at this late date, the ones he now most needs to woo to the voting booth.
Starting this weekend, the Dole campaign is scheduled to air an anti-illegal-immigration advertisement in television markets throughout the state to coincide with the candidate's visit. The ad focuses on the social and economic burdens created by illegal immigration, depicted by a scene of an overcrowded classroom.
The candidate got an early jump on his theme while campaigning Friday in Texas, criticizing the Clinton administration over published reports that some recently naturalized citizens have criminal records. "And then we have all these new people coming into America, rushing through the immigration process," he said. "And we find out [the criminal element] may be as high as 10%."
Dole is betting everything on carrying California, where he plans to spend at least $4 million in the final days of the presidential race, even as a recent Los Angeles Times Poll showed him trailing President Clinton here by an all-but-insurmountable 20 percentage points.
According to aides, Dole will spend his three-day visit--which includes a bus trip up the Central Valley--emphasizing the cost of illegal immigration to the state's taxpayers.
He will also stress the administration's opposition to reimbursing California for illegal-immigration-related costs that Gov. Pete Wilson argues the federal government should pay.
In choosing illegal immigration as one of his final weapons, Dole has picked up a tactic that worked well for Wilson two years ago. But political analysts say the fear of illegal immigration run wild is less likely to be a broad and automatic vote-getter today, as voter anger on the subject appears to have subsided.
Dole faces another problem as well--his current stands contradict positions he took prior to this campaign.
In addition, the administration argues that several policy changes have improved California's illegal-immigration picture. But perhaps the most important change is that the state's economy has sharply improved, reducing the economic anxiety that helped intensify voters' concerns about immigrants.
