WASHINGTON — A steady rise in births and a continuing stream of immigrants will add nearly 18 million people to California's population by 2025--something akin to the entire state of New York moving in, according to the latest projections by the U.S. Census Bureau.
As the nation prepares for Census 2000, demographers are already predicting that the most populous state will continue to grow faster than any other, a trend that could affect everything from the water supply to the morning commute to the lines at the DMV.
"The sheen is back on the state of California," said Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Economic Development Corp. of Los Angeles County. "People are hearing about the economy coming back. We have become a magnet again for people looking to start careers, people who want to be where the jobs are."
The census projections show that California residents will number 32.5 million in 2000, a relatively modest increase from the 1995 figure of 31.6 million. But demographers expect the population to surge at the start of the 21st century, hitting 49.3 million in 2025.
Although the numbers may sound ominous to some, the growth spurt--in percentage terms--is really no greater than what California has experienced since the end of World War II. But how much more an increasingly beleaguered infrastructure, crowded school districts, limited water supply and bursting prison system can stand is shaping up as the next-century challenge for policymakers from City Hall to Congress. And how ingenious they are in their solutions could determine the quality of life for Californians for decades to come.
"To survive and thrive in this new economy we are going to have to think strategically and act quickly, not just sit around and study the darn thing to death," Kyser said. "These census numbers are a call to action--a fire alarm."
Most of the new Californians will come from an anticipated 22 million births. The rest will result from immigration; more than one-third of all immigrants who come to the United States legally and otherwise through 2025 are expected to settle in California--nearly 9 million people. A portion of the total growth will be offset by deaths.
But state demographers who make forecasts of their own believe the federal projections could be a bit low, because it is difficult to get an accurate count of illegal immigrants. Also, the federal numbers assume a continued exodus of Californians to other states, a trend that started during the state's recession but has reversed itself. Indeed, state officials say more people are again moving into California than are moving out.
