NAIROBI, Kenya — The fighting that has rocked Congo, the Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic in recent months follows a pattern of unrest plaguing much of the region, analysts say, noting that Rwanda, Burundi, Angola, Sudan and Uganda all have been riven by insurgencies and are struggling to avert more bloodshed.
The main ingredients contributing to the turmoil include ethnic divisions, stagnant economies (except in Uganda), refugees, hunger, poverty and the lack of effective crisis-intervention programs. "In all of these countries, there are problems that can be exploited," said one U.S. official. "There is a built-in vulnerability."
Analysts warn that upheaval in the Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic could further destabilize the region, leading more refugees to flee to countries such as Tanzania and Zambia, which have so far managed to cling to stability. It could escalate the cross-border traffic in illegal weapons and further aggravate ethnic clashes.
Of equal importance, observers say, the unrest could undermine fragile democratic gains and reforms in countries such as Namibia, Eritrea, Ethiopia and South Africa. Crises in Africa, analysts note, often send shock waves far beyond the borders of an affected country.
Since the 1994 massacre of 500,000 ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus in Rwanda, there has been a military coup in Burundi, continued combat in Angola and Uganda, an upsurge in fighting in Sudan's civil war and a rebel takeover last May in Congo, which was then called Zaire.
Now it seems to be the turn for the Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic.
"The problems have been brewing here for some time," said Malik Chaka, director of research at the Washington-based Center for Democracy in Angola. "It just took a spark" to ignite.
A fragile truce is holding in the Central African Republic's capital, Bangui, after more than a week of bloody clashes between an African peacekeeping force and mutinous government soldiers. The rebels have sought to topple civilian President Ange-Felix Patasse, and the peacekeepers have been in Bangui since January.
Meanwhile, in Brazzaville, capital of the Republic of Congo, fighting continued despite announcements that a peace deal had been struck there. Just weeks ago, Brazzaville served as a haven for hundreds fleeing the civil war in neighboring Zaire.
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