ALBUQUERQUE — Solar power is one of those things that's always just around the corner. Just a few more technical advances over here, and a little government help over there, and we'll have solved all our energy and pollution problems once and for all. It seems like we've been hearing that for 30 years now.
So, at the risk of ridicule, I'm here to tell you that widespread use of solar power is just around the corner. Rooftops across California will be turned into power plants by the hundreds of thousands. The L.A. Department of Water & Power, now reeling from a radical cost-cutting proposal, will be a national leader.
And with a little luck, ambition and good policymaking, Los Angeles will be the center of a major new industry.
OK, I admit, I may just be suffering the effects of a little brainwashing after attending a conference here last week called Utility PV Experience. It's the event where the small cadre of utility industry types who are interested in "renewables" in general and photovoltaics, or "PV," in particular come to trade notes. Chastened by years of unfulfilled promises, they err toward the modest in their predictions.
But I have to say I was startled by just how close photovoltaic solar cells--slabs of treated silicon that turn sunlight directly into electricity--are to being an economically competitive source of power. And that's without figuring in a few minor side benefits, like prevention of global warming.
At first blush, the numbers don't really look all that promising. Price comparisons for electricity are a little tricky, since there are wide variations in the cost and the price of current sources, but roughly speaking it still costs at least three times as much to produce electricity from PV cells as from conventional domestic power sources.
That sounds like a huge differential. But in many parts of the world, solar cells compete not with the local electric grid but with nothing at all. Because they can be put anywhere, require virtually no maintenance and last for decades, PV systems are rapidly becoming a major power source in many parts of the developing world.
In Europe and Japan, moreover, energy costs are far higher than in the United States, sometimes three to four times higher. Thus gray, cloudy Germany is a leader in PV power. (That was my first clue that sunny SoCal must be missing something.)
