For the nation's retailers, the season of hope begins tomorrow.
Anxious to avoid destructive price cuts later, merchants are kicking off the holiday shopping season with a slew of incentives aimed at converting a multitude of last-minute shoppers into big-spending early birds.
Macy's, Sears, Roebuck & Co. and other big department store chains are using promotions, contests and other deals to reverse consumers' habitual tardiness. Shoppers have been buying later and later each year, waiting until desperate merchants slash prices to clear their shelves before Christmas.
Merchants are betting this season will be different, thanks to "buy early" incentives and tight inventory controls.
Though some analysts doubt the industry can reverse such entrenched consumer behavior, there are signs that some retailers are enjoying success. Scattered promotions and one-day sales in the weeks before Thanksgiving have lured shoppers in early.
Michael and Valerie Larsen were among those buying gifts at Westside Pavilion last Saturday.
"He wanted to wait," Valerie Larsen said of her husband, "but I wanted to take advantage of the sales I've seen advertised."
The "malls are already crowded," said John Konarski, a retail analyst at the International Council of Shopping Centers. "Retailers have been telling consumers that inventories are slimmer and to buy early for the best selection. The message may be registering."
Despite such optimism, analysts expect only a modestly successful holiday season. The National Retail Federation predicts a 3.8% increase in 1997 holiday sales nationally. A similar increase is expected in Southern California.
Last year, retailers posted a 4.5% gain nationwide in December, with California merchants recording sales increases of between 5% and 5.5% over 1995.
"The economy remains strong and there's a high level of consumer confidence and low interest rates," said Ira Kalish, a retail economist at the Los Angeles offices of Management Horizons. "On the other hand, there's not a lot of pent-up demand and the level of consumer debt is relatively high."
Retailers are offering promotions designed to create urgency. For example, both Macy's and Robinsons-May held pre-Thanksgiving Day sales Wednesday in a bid to lure those who want to avoid Friday's rush.
