NAIROBI, Kenya — An upsurge of trouble in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta has been testing the new military rulers' tolerance of dissent, forcing them to deal with the aspirations of impoverished ethnic groups and further endangering an already weak economy.
In the recent history of the world's sixth-largest oil producer, competing demands for the wealth generated by black gold often have made it seem more of curse than a blessing.
During the past 19 months, clashes between ethnic rivals in the southern oil town of Warri and surrounding creeks and bayous have left scores dead. The conflict is rooted in the quest for political dominance, land and control of oil.
This fall, ethnic Ijaw youths seized oil wells and pumping stations, shutting off a third of Nigeria's exports of 2 million barrels a day. Their actions threatened the $7-billion-a-year industry.
Frustration and poverty also led to tragedy in October. About 700 people scavenging fuel from a burst oil pipeline died in a catastrophic inferno in a village not far from Warri.
In contrast to his corrupt predecessor, Gen. Sani Abacha, the new military government of Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar has not used brute force to crack down on unrest.
Analysts agree that the trouble is not serious enough yet to derail the new ruler's plans to restore democracy in this country of 107 million, Africa's most populous.
However, with local elections scheduled for this weekend, analysts say the unrest could divert attention, money and manpower from the regime's political plans. Stability is crucial for a smooth transition to civilian rule next year, as is peace among the 7 million people who sit atop the 27,000-square-mile delta that is Nigeria's economic lifeline.
Oil revenue provides about 90% of Nigeria's foreign exchange and about 80% of the government's total revenue. Of that total, 13% is supposed to go back to developing the infrastructure of the oil-producing areas, something that local critics say seldom happens.
The turmoil actually could have a positive side, analysts say, pressing the government to loosen its grip on power and give more authority to local officials.
"It is likely to force issues onto the agenda like restructuring of the Nigerian federation," Pat Utomi, a political economist at Lagos Business School, said by telephone.
