U.S. Strikes Back as Iraq Defies 'No-Fly' Zone
WASHINGTON — U.S. warplanes pounded three Iraqi military targets with missiles and laser-guided smart bombs Wednesday as President Saddam Hussein expanded his latest show of defiance to a "no-fly" zone encompassing southern Iraq.
The Pentagon said Baghdad provoked the confrontation by firing six to eight surface-to-air missiles at a British aircraft. U.S. officials reported no casualties among the 20 U.S. warplanes and four British bombers patrolling the region and said the targets were apparently hit.
Hussein's second provocation in three days reflects a new gamble by the Iraqi leader to use force in an effort to get the United States to respond in kind, according to Western analysts. It is a pattern that over time could become costly for the Clinton administration diplomatically, militarily and financially.
Baghdad appears to be calculat-ing that a prolonged series of U.S. strikes will fail to achieve the American goals of either overturning the regime or pressuring Iraq into cooperating with the outside world.
A stalemate in Washington's new "containment-plus" strategy, which calls for greater use of U.S. military muscle to deter Iraqi aggression, could increase pressure on Washington to look for alternative strategies, Hussein's regime apparently hopes.
"Ultimately, what Hussein is trying to do is make it harder and harder to sustain the no-fly zones," said Kenneth Pollack, an Iraq expert at the National Defense University in Washington. "If the U.S. starts dropping bombs on Iraq every other day, he's counting on the rest of the world saying: 'What is the U.S. doing? What is the legal basis of these no-fly zones? And isn't there a better way to deal with Iraq?' "
Under this scenario, the military costs and diplomatic pressures could strengthen the position of U.N. Security Council members Russia, France and China, which favor negotiations with Iraq rather than punitive actions. All three are also prepared to deal with the current government in Baghdad rather than try to replace it.
Already, Iraq's strategy has achieved one goal: diverting world attention from Hussein's refusal to allow U.N. inspectors to resume their work overseeing the dismantling of his weapons of mass destruction.
Baghdad has also increased the need for the United States to maintain its air presence in the Persian Gulf.
