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CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS

The Message Behind the Votes

June 03, 1998

A Times poll of more than 5,000 voters Tuesday found a disproportionate turnout of Democrats which benefited the two party stalwarts, Gray Davis and Barbara Boxer, undermined the anti-union Proposition 226 and resulted in a closer-than-predicted vote on Proposition 227, the measure to virtually eliminate bilingual education. Voters cited the hard-fought race for governor and these two ballot measures as key reasons for turning out.

WHEN DID YOU DECIDE HOW YOU WOULD VOTE FOR GOVERNOR?

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Checchi Davis Harman Lungren voters voters voters voters Today or yesterday 17% 15% 25% 9% Over the weekend 23% 23% 27% 18% or last week Before last week 60% 62% 48% 73%

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WHAT DID YOU LIKE MOST ABOUT YOUR CHOICE FOR GOVERNOR? (two responses accepted)

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Checchi Davis Harman Lungren voters voters voters voters Cares about people like me 25% 15% 16% 9% Has the experience to be governor 13% 60% 18% 35% Has strong leadership qualities 24% 15% 33% 29% Has vision for California's future 21% 16% 23% 16% Has new ideas 16% 2% 10% 3% Not beholden to special interests 12% 4% 6% 4% Can win in November 3% 7% 5% 10% Used own money for campaign 11% 1% 2% 1% Best alternative of those running 10% 17% 24% 20% Has honesty and integrity 8% 10% 12% 21% None of the above 6% 5% 8% 6%

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WHICH OF THESE THINGS HAD A MAJOR INFLUENCE ON YOUR VOTE FOR GOVERNOR? (two responses accepted)

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Checchi Davis Harman Lungren voters voters voters voters My candidate's stand on education 37% 24% 34% 14% My candidate's stand on crime 23% 14% 19% 34% Negative campaigning by others 5% 13% 18% 7% Harman is a woman 1% 1% 27% -- Lungren's experience as attorney 2% 1% 1% 67% general Harman's political and business 2% 1% 37% -- experience Davis' experience as lieutenant 2% 61% 2% 1% governor My candidate has more experience 4% 20% 5% 8% in elected office Checchi's experience as a successful businessman 50% -- -- -- None of the above 10% 8% 9% 11%

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Note: Numbers may add up to more than 100% where more than one response was accepted.

--indicates less than 0.5%. All figures reflect preliminary exit poll results.

WHICH RACES OR BALLOT INITIATIVES PARTICULARLY MOTIVATED YOU TO TURN OUT TO VOTE TODAY? (two responses accepted)

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All Demo- Independ- Repub- voters crats ents licans Governor's race 42% 48% 39% 36% U.S. Senate race 12% 11% 11% 15% Prop. 223 8% 9% 5% 8% (School spending limits) Prop. 226 (Union dues) 21% 22% 20% 20% Prop. 227 27% 25% 29% 27% (Bilingual education) Other races 4% 4% 4% 4% or initiatives Interested in every- 26% 23% 31% 30% thing on ballot Nothing in particular 8% 8% 12% 8%

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HAVE YOU VOTED BEFORE IN CALIFORNIA ELECTION? IN A CALIFORNIA PRIMARY ELECTION?

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All Demo- Independ- Repub- voters crats ents licans Never voted before 4% 5% 8% 3% in California Have voted before 9% 10% 15% 4% in California, but this is my first primary Have voted before 87% 85% 77% 93% in a California primary election

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WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THE "OPEN" OR "BLANKET" PRIMARY? (multiple responses accepted)

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All Demo- Independ- Repub- voters crats ents licans Confusing ballot/ 9% 9% 6% 8% Too many names In a primary, 15% 17% 12% 15% only Democrats should vote for Democrats, etc. It's fairer--all 31% 32% 34% 29% voters can vote in candidate races It allows me to 58% 56% 62% 61% vote for candidate of my choice, regardless of party None of the above 4% 4% 5% 4%

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THINGS IN CALIFORNIA ARE GENERALLY...

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All Demo- Independ- Repub- voters crats ents licans Going in the 66% 63% 69% 71% right direction Seriously off on 34% 37% 31% 29% the wrong track

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SHOULD REPUBLICANS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE FOR ANOTHER FOUR YEARS, OR IS IT TIME FOR A CHANGE TO THE DEMOCRATS?

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All Demo- Independ- Repub- voters crats ents licans Republicans 36% 8% 26% 82% Time for a change 64% 92% 74% 18%

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Source: Los Angeles Times / CNN exit poll conducted Tuesday

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll/CNN interviewed more than 5,000 voters as they left 100 polling places across California during voting hours. Precincts were chosen based on the pattern of turnout in past statewide elections. The survey was by confidential questionnaire. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the entire sample is plus or minus 2 percentage points; for some subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Because the survey does not include absentee voters or those who declined to participate when approached, actual returns and demographic estimates by the interviewers were used to adjust the sample slightly. Interviews at the precinct level were conducted by Davis Research of Calabasas. Times Poll results are also available at http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/POLLS.

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