MADISON, Wis. — In their long and often bitter struggle for a Senate seat here, Democratic incumbent Russell D. Feingold and his Republican rival, Rep. Mark W. Neumann, have not agreed on much.
But both are in sync on one thing: With polls registering a dead heat, each expects to be up late tonight, waiting for the voters' verdict in a race likely to come down to which campaign does a better job of getting out its supporters. "Right now," said Gene Ulm, Neumann's pollster, "it all comes down to turnout and intensity."
Across the country in both parties, a long list of candidates in key races are saying the same thing. With the economy strong and public interest in the election low, the 1998 campaign has not produced a decisive tail wind for either side. Far from dominating the dialogue, the scandal surrounding President Clinton's affair with Monica S. Lewinsky has surfaced only in a handful of races--and no other single issue has replaced it to provide a focus for the campaign.
In this diffuse and relatively placid environment, many of the nation's marquee races--such as the contest here, as well as Senate races in New York, Kentucky, North Carolina and perhaps California and South Carolina--appear headed for photo finishes. Party operatives said Monday that as many as two dozen House races are still difficult to call--an unusually high number on election eve.
Amid conflicting polls, the real question may be whether any late trend or turnout advantage tilts most of the close races toward one side. That was the case in 1986, when Democrats won nine of the 11 Senate races in which the victor won 52% of the vote or less.
Experts Say Races Too Close to Call
As the '98 campaign hurtles toward its conclusion, most analysts in both parties were betting against a similar advantage emerging for either side this year. Final national polls over the weekend suggesting some movement toward Democrats pointed in one direction. But saturation advertising from the national GOP in many tight races pointed in the other.
"There are a lot of close races out there, but I don't think there is a national wave that will lead them all to break one way rather than another," said Democratic pollster Geoff Garin. "Big things are going to be decided by small margins."
