Forecast of Drier Winter Is Relief for Farmers, Agencies

Last year they met her temperamental brother, who wrecked piers and washed out crops. Now firefighters, flood-control workers and farmers are happy to see La Nina, El Nino's more sedate sister.

La Nina, the bookend opposite to the weather phenomenon known as El Nino, is expected to bring a drier, slightly warmer-than-average winter in Southern California. Her more irritable brother was known for abnormally wet and cold weather that flooded reservoirs in Ventura County and destroyed crops.

In Southern California, meteorologists downplay the effect that La Nina is expected to have on this year's rainy season. Precipitation will be about 70% of normal and temperatures slightly above normal, they say.

That forecast is a relief for agencies and others overwhelmed by last year's weather, when Ventura County averaged 250% more rainfall than normal.

Among farmers, strawberry growers should be happiest about this winter dryness, according to Alan Laird, Ventura County's deputy agricultural commissioner. Their sensitive crops were hammered hardest by El Nino's rains, while tree-grown crops mostly benefited from the extra precipitation.

The first crop of strawberries, which will appear in December and carry a higher market price, could benefit from less water, more so than berries grown later in the season.

"If you're a strawberry grower, that's not that bad of a forecast to have La Nina instead of El Nino," Laird said.

Even with rainfall expected to be below normal, there is no need to worry about drought. "The reservoirs are indeed full and we've got carry-over storage even over into next year," said Don Kendall, general manager of Calleguas Municipal Water District, which provides water to about 75% of county residents.

Kendall said the water district has stored water in the North Las Posas Basin and Lake Bard. More water is also stored in state facilities.

With fire season continuing into November, the Ventura County Fire Department remains on alert, even with more moisture than normal in brush and the atmosphere.

"That's a plus for firefighters," department spokesman Joe Luna said.

There is still enough moisture left from El Nino that firefighters had a hard time completing a prescribed burn Wednesday, Luna said. Firefighters are making no special provisions to cope with the drier weather La Nina may bring, he said.


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