Six weeks before voters decide whether to grant her a second term, U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer has failed to fully capitalize on the benefits of incumbency and is in danger of defeat, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.
In results that underscore the importance of turnout in November, Democrat Boxer leads her Republican opponent, state Treasurer Matt Fong, by an 8-point margin among registered voters, 47%-39%. But among voters considered likely to vote, Fong leads by five percentage points, 48%-43%.
While turnout is notoriously difficult to predict--especially in this year's scandal-stained political environment--the poll showed that Boxer is still a sharply polarizing political figure, and one who has been damaged by the furor over President Clinton's relationship with former White House intern Monica S. Lewinsky.
When Fong voters were asked why they sided with him, the answer volunteered most often was that he is not Boxer, a sharp denunciation of the incumbent.
In her job approval rating, Boxer remains below the 50% point generally accepted as the low-water mark for successful incumbents. Forty-seven percent of registered voters approved of the way she is handling her job, with 30% disapproving. That was not markedly different from the 45%-27% verdict she garnered in an April Los Angeles Times poll.
Ultimately, the poll demonstrated that, for Boxer, election is tantamount to high-wire acrobatics. Eking her way into office in 1992 on the strength of women voters, she has not substantially broadened her base of support. She remains propped up largely by younger women voters--a group not always dependable on election day.
"She has the younger vote, but typically younger people do not come out to vote," said Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus. "She really has to be much more visible to the electorate in order to better define herself."
The poll surveyed 1,651 Californians Sept. 12-17. Among them, 1,270 were registered voters and 684 were deemed likely to vote. The margin of error is three percentage points in either direction for registered voters and four percentage points in either direction for likely voters.
Taken as a whole, the poll results showed that, as with most reelection campaigns, the Boxer-Fong contest is shaping up as a referendum on the incumbent. And that, in Boxer's case, is not necessarily good news.
