Exactly a year ago, arms inspections in Iraq were terminated and Operation Desert Fox was underway. The stated aim of that American and British military action was to "degrade" Iraq's weapons of mass destruction capability. Whether it achieved this, it did not end Iraq's resistance to United Nations arms control.
On Friday, the U.N. Security Council adopted a new approach to the problem of Iraq, although France, Russia and China abstained. This new inspection system may work if the United States and Britain keep up the pressure, but the abstentions by the majority of the permanent members may lead to another deadlock down the road.
It is worth recalling what led to these circumstances and asking what might happen in the future.
In August 1998, Iraq declared itself disarmed and terminated all further work by the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM). Three months later, when it became clear that a bombing of Iraq was being prepared, an urgent meeting of the Security Council took place. Iraq offered written assurances that it would resume "full cooperation" with the arms inspectors and a dramatic last-minute decision to stop the bombing was made.
The Security Council charged me with reporting on whether Iraq had kept its promise. In mid-December, having received detailed reports from all chief inspectors--in the missile, chemical and biological weapons fields--I reported that Iraq had not provided full cooperation and, indeed, had imposed new restrictions. The next day, Operation Desert Fox began.
Security Council action on Iraq was diverted for several months by events in Kosovo. When it resumed work, the predictable draft resolutions were tabled. A British draft sought to pursue remaining disarmament tasks, establish a new monitoring regime and provide for the suspension of sanctions for specific, renewable periods, if Iraq cooperated with the new arrangements. It was an amended version of this draft that was adopted on Friday.
It cannot be known, precisely, what Iraq has done during the last year, but there were clear indications that when UNSCOM was being ejected from Iraq, it was working toward expanding its missile force. Its knowledge in the fields of chemical and biological weapons makes it foolish not to assume that, absent international scrutiny, Iraq had resumed its prohibited activities.
