Don't Count the GOP Out

WASHINGTON — It's far too early to entertain the notion of presidential coattails, but improved GOP congressional performance, Texas Gov. George W. Bush's engagement on issues of concern to voters and his passion for education reform suggest that the Republican Party is well-positioned to extend its congressional majority. Add to this Vice President Al Gore's inexhaustible capacity for political expediency at the expense of his party, and the GOP's chances are even better.

No question the GOP challenge is formidable. The current alignment in the House of Representatives--222 Republicans, 211 Democrats and two independents--is the narrowest majority in modern history. A net switch of just six seats would put Democrats in charge. But the country seems relatively comfortable with the notion of divided control. Moreover, a switch in party control at both the presidential and congressional levels has not been occurred in more than 150 years.

Republicans face a structural disadvantage since they have to defend 23 open seats, versus seven for Democrats. But Democrats face a significant uphill battle in winning these seats because of candidate recruitment, fund-raising prowess and the dynamics of the presidential race. In California, for example, state Assemblyman Jim Cunneen, the GOP nominee for Rep. Tom Campbell's open seat, is perfectly positioned ideologically for this district and will have no problem raising money. And Darrell Issa will probably succeed Rep. Ron Packard (R-Oceanside) in a race that Democrats were looking to build their majority.

Bush must make a key strategic decision on the importance of California to his electoral chances, which may also affect the GOP House majority. No one has been elected president in modern history who lost both California and New York, which collectively constitute 87 electoral votes, nearly one-third of what's necessary to win. New York appears to be solid for Gore. Not California. Averaging the candidate's percentages in the four most recent statewide polls, Gore has 50.5%, to Bush's 43.25%. This despite the fact that Gore made 40 trips to California as vice president, while Bush has yet to campaign extensively in the state.

Polling data also indicate how far the Republican Party has come since its favorability ratings plummeted during the impeachment and trial of President Bill Clinton. The job-approval rating of the GOP-controlled House of Representatives is 56%, according to my polling. The same poll showed that the GOP's rating as a party and its reelection prospects have greatly improved from December 1998, when the House voted to impeach Clinton.