Median prices for new homes in the Antelope Valley have for the first time exceeded the region's 1989 peak--a hopeful sign for an economy still struggling to put the recession behind it.
The median price for the second quarter ended June 30 was $165,990, beating the 1989 mark of $152,963, according to the Meyers Group, an Irvine-based research company that tracks new home sales.
"The market has stepped up," said Tom DiPrima, a Western region executive vice president for Kaufman & Broad, the nation's largest home builder, which has five active developments in the Antelope Valley.
Even so, the recovery is not complete. The new home values are not adjusted for inflation, and sales counts are nowhere near levels of the previous era.
In 1989, for example, 4,210 new homes were sold, compared with 699 in 1999. During the first half of 2000, 399 new homes were sold, according to the Meyers Group.
The market for resale homes also has yet to fully rebound. The median price for a single-family home in June was $100,000--still 27% below the 1989 high of $137,000, according to DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla.
The median is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half sold for less.
By comparison, the median home price in Los Angeles County rose to $203,000 in June, matching the all-time high set in May 1991, according to DataQuick.
Still, analysts said the trends suggest a budding recovery for the Antelope Valley.
Property values there have been rising since the start of the year. DataQuick reports that in January the median price for resale homes there was $85,000. By February, it was up to $90,000, and has steadily increased several thousand dollars each month. In May and June, it was $100,000.
DataQuick analyst John Karevoll doesn't foresee the Antelope Valley residential real estate market reattaining its former heights this year, but he said it could happen in one to two years.
"It's only a question of time," Karevoll said.
At present, Los Angeles-area home buyers can still find entry-level housing without driving out to the desert. But as prices and interest rates rise, the inevitable will occur, Karevoll said.
"A point will come--a year, or a year and a half, or two from now--when mortgage rates may be up a point and home values may have continued to go up 10% a year," he said. "Then, a significant number of potential home buyers will get bumped out of the [L.A.] market."
