George W. Bush might not have much of a mandate after his narrow victory, but as president he will have a lot of power. So he will have a major impact on the economy and business in the next few years.
To be sure, a sharply divided Congress, though nominally Republican, will probably give Bush trouble on major programs such as big tax cuts or Social Security reform.
But presidents exert their will in other ways, through appointments of Cabinet secretaries, regulators and other officials to head government departments and agencies.
Those officials carry out White House policies on matters ranging from energy and the environment to agriculture, trade, technology, national defense, antitrust and telecommunications.
Bush's principal economic advisor, for example, is Lawrence Lindsey, a former Federal Reserve governor who served as an advisor to Bush's father, the former president, in 1989.
Partly because Lindsey has always favored a strong dollar, markets Wednesday pushed up the dollar against the euro and yen. Lindsey and President-elect Bush also agree on cutting taxes not only to spur the economy but to let people keep and organize more of their own money.
Yesterday such positions were theory; today they are the stuff of future policy--in all likelihood.
"It's never wise to put too much store in campaign positions. An administration's policies are often formed in response to economic circumstances," notes economist John Mueller of Lehrman Bell Mueller Cannon, a Washington-area economic think tank.
The new Bush administration is inheriting a slowing economy, perhaps a recession, that conveniently it can blame on its predecessor, the Clinton administration. That will aid Bush's ability to cut taxes, moderately at least. Lindsey will be a key economic helmsman behind the scenes on such a tax cut.
Global markets will need reassurance that the new administration has a steady hand on the tiller, even though the most important financial actor, Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, will remain on the job at least four more years.
So Bush's appointment as Treasury secretary will be an important signal to the markets, as Clinton's Robert Rubin was.
Current Washington speculation mentions two names prominently for the Bush Treasury post: Walter Shipley, retired head of Chase Manhattan, and Kenneth Lay, a longtime friend and supporter of the Bush family and a seasoned international businessman. Published speculation on the Treasury post has also included Gerald Parsky, of Aurora Capital in Los Angeles, and William McDonough, head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank.
