DES MOINES — The farm towns and city precincts of Iowa were alive with a final burst of political heat and motion on Sunday before the first presidential test of 2000, as five Republican and two Democratic candidates pressed to turn out supporters and pick up fence-sitters before today's crucial Iowa caucuses.
The balloting that begins at 7 p.m. CST in private homes, civic clubs and church halls across the state could set the parameters of the race as it heads into the New Hampshire primary next week, helping determine who has the staying power for the steeplechase of the primaries that follows.
On Sunday, the two front-runners, Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush, leaned heavily on their disciplined campaign organizations as they exhorted loyalists to get out to vote at more than 2,100 sites throughout the state.
While the vice president urged a small crowd in the Mississippi River town of Clinton to avoid "the slightest hint of complacency or over-confidence," Bush tried to ward off stinging criticism by Republican rivals that he has tried to mute abortion as a campaign issue.
The Texas governor said on ABC-TV's "This Week" that if he is elected, he will fill any Supreme Court vacancies with "strict constructionist" judges who base their rulings on rigid readings of the Constitution--a subtle signal to anti-abortion activists who believe the high court overreached in legalizing abortion in 1973.
Bush continued the ideological tightrope walk he has led in recent days, both emphasizing his opposition to abortion and conceding that the nation is not ready to outlaw the controversial medical procedure. "I've been a pro-life governor," Bush said, adding: "I understand good people can disagree on the issue."
Despite a final campaign week that saw the candidates racing across the state with unflagging spirits and drawing impressive crowds, the 2000 presidential race has remained nearly as static as it started out.
Gore got off to a stumbling start last year, marred by weak public performances and a vigorous challenge from former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey, who unexpectedly matched the vice president dollar for dollar in fund-raising and resurrected national health care as a campaign priority. But Gore recovered to a point where he now is aiming for a commanding enough victory in Iowa to throttle any chance of a Bradley bounce heading into New Hampshire.
That state appears to be the battleground for a close-range Republican contest next week between Bush and Sen. John McCain of Arizona. McCain has avoided Iowa, leaving Bush to stave off a pack of more conservative rivals who include wealthy businessman Steve Forbes, Christian social activists Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes and Sen. Orrin G. Hatch of Utah.
The Iowa contest has long been dominated by the state's political partisans and, often poorly attended, is expected to draw little more than 10% of the state's 1.8 million registered voters. Hence the night often goes to party favorites who ally with potent organizations such as labor unions and religious activists to bring out the largest faction of supporters.
Under the caucus system, Iowans assemble at voting sites to declare their support for candidates and begin the complicated process of awarding the state's delegates to the national nominating conventions. But with thousands of reporters surveying tonight's first stage of the complex process, the vote has become the first weather vane of the political season. The weather itself is a crucial element, and tonight's forecast of sub-zero temperatures and snow flurries could aid Gore and Forbes, whose strong organizations have the heft to turn out Iowans no matter what.
Despite recent polls that showed Gore and Bush with daunting leads as they approached today's caucuses, their rivals crossed the state's rural terrain Sunday, barnstorming by plane and convoying by bus for one last go at an under-the-radar upset--or at least a strong enough showing to exceed expectations.
Bradley, bolstered by an endorsement in Sunday's Des Moines Register, the state's largest newspaper, and campaigning side by side with maverick Sen. Paul Wellstone of Minnesota, insisted that he was "in this campaign for the duration." The Register's own polling showed Bradley losing to Gore, 56% to 28%, but his aides held out hope that undecided voters could tighten the contest in its final hours.
