Why Pentagon Spells 'Safety' N-M-D

NEW YORK — The failure of the Pentagon's latest National Missile Defense test on Jan. 18 reopened the debate over how fast to proceed with deployment of an NMD system. But the real question is not when to deploy missile defense but whether to do it. These test failures were nothing new, and despite what "star warriors" would like the U.S. public to believe, missile defense will do little to protect our country and much to enrich the Pentagon and its key defense contractors.

Since President Ronald Reagan's "Star Wars" speech in 1983, the United States has spent more than $60 billion on missile defenses, with current funding at $4 billion a year. Yet, to date, these funds have produced precious little beyond a few mostly negative test results. The latest variation on Reagan's shield against nuclear weapons has been restructured to focus on the seemingly more realistic goal of defending all 50 states from an accidental missile launch from Russia or China, or from attack by a rogue nation such as Iran, Iraq or North Korea.

As we approach the 17th anniversary of Reagan's 1983 speech, which promised to render nuclear weapons "impotent and obsolete," the most remarkable legacy of his upbeat assessment is how consistently missile defense has failed to meet virtually every performance goal set for it. The most recent intercept test failed after the interceptor's infrared sensors malfunctioned. Last October's "successful" intercept test is now under scrutiny after reports revealed the test was filled with flaws. Only after the interceptor veered off course, following a decoy balloon, was it able to detect the smaller, dimmer warhead drifting close to the decoy. As Tom Z. Collina of the Union of Concerned Scientists said, "They got lucky."

In the face of calls from opponents and supporters alike to postpone a June 2000 deployment decision until after the November elections, the Clinton administration has made no adjustments to its timetable. Another intercept test is scheduled for April, and if it succeeds in hitting its target, the U.S. military will meet its own minimum standard to conclude that a missile-defense system is technologically feasible.

A total of only 19 tests are scheduled for the National Missile Defense system. By comparison, the Patriot missile, which has a far less demanding mission, succeeded in 17 out of 17 tests before it was developed and deployed. And the Safeguard antiballistic-missile system, deployed for just a few months in the 1970s, underwent 111 tests, including 58 successful intercepts in 70 attempts.