WASHINGTON — Behind the symbolism of George W. Bush's efforts last week to court traditionally Democratic minority voters lies a stark reality: He can afford to focus on expanding his coalition precisely because he has consolidated his political base far more successfully than Al Gore.
In recent polls, Bush is consistently attracting support from about 9 in 10 Republicans--a far better showing than either of the last two GOP presidential nominees. Gore, meanwhile, draws only about three-fourths of Democrats.
And while conservative activists have largely acquiesced to Bush's moves toward the center since the GOP primaries, Gore is still facing loud rumbles of discontent from liberal voices as diverse as Ralph Nader, the Green Party's presidential nominee, and the leadership of the United Auto Workers.
This disparity is providing Bush a significant tactical advantage, allowing him to work much earlier and more systematically than Gore on courting the swing voters likely to decide the election.
This week alone, Bush appeared before prominent Latino and African American groups, touted new proposals to help the disabled and praised measures to move welfare recipients into the work force--all with the aim of convincing voters he is "a different kind of Republican," as his aides put it. And with the GOP base already seemingly cemented, Bush aides are openly discussing ways to temper the partisan tone at the party convention to increase the Texas governor's appeal to less ideological independent voters.
"We've been able for the past few months . . . to talk to the swing and independent voters in a concerted way," said one senior Bush advisor.
The aide asserts that Gore, in contrast, has to "aim at his base . . . so [his campaign's] discussion with the independent and swing voters hasn't been able to start."
Gore aides say that analysis overstates Bush's advantage: From the outset, they note, much of the vice president's agenda--from his emphasis on paying off the national debt to his defense of welfare reform--has been aimed squarely at swing voters.
Yet, as Bush advisors note, the Democratic National Committee has been compelled to concentrate its initial pro-Gore TV advertising in states that President Clinton carried in 1996--including some, such as Iowa, considered part of the Democrats' bedrock base. And with Bush running unusually well in local polls, Gore lately has had to visit states, such as Minnesota, Oregon and Washington, that voted consistently Democratic in recent presidential campaigns.
