CAIRO — Syria's political hierarchy moved swiftly Saturday to bring about a smooth transfer of power to Bashar Assad after the death of his father, President Hafez Assad. But many analysts believe that the relatively untested 34-year-old could eventually face difficulties in his bid to maintain and extend the Assad legacy.
The rapidity with which the Syrian parliament amended the country's constitution to allow for a presidential candidate as young as Bashar Assad left no doubt that the ruling elite is ready to elect him president, likely when parliament meets June 25.
But that might not be the end of it. Bashar could face challenges from within his own family, from elements of the Sunni Muslim majority in Syria and almost certainly from Lebanese who resent Syria's continued dominance over Lebanon.
"No doubt there will be a void and a sort of uncertainty," said Kasem Gafar, an Arab political analyst in Doha, Qatar.
He said a process of housecleaning had begun, including changes in the Baath Party and in the government, to help pave the way for Bashar's succession. But the process had not been finished when Hafez Assad died, he said.
"It may be said that Bashar's succession would have been a certainty if President Assad had been able to complete the preparations," Gafar said Saturday in an interview by al-Jezeera, a pan-Arab satellite television broadcaster. But now that is not so clear, he added.
"Is he as powerful as Hafez Assad? I think not," said Egyptian editor Mohamed Sadani of the Al Ahram daily. "He will have problems, but we can't know what their nature will be."
On the other hand, said Sadani, Bashar might already be powerful enough "to make things work."
During his rise to power and afterward, Assad never shirked from using force to maintain control--whether it was arresting dissident writers or ruthlessly crushing a rebellion, as in the city of Hama in 1982, or in moving against forces loyal to his younger brother Rifaat.
It remains to be seen whether Bashar, who was educated as an ophthalmologist, is made of the same material, said a diplomat in Damascus. In some ways, because he is not generally viewed as a strongman like his father, Bashar might have to be even tougher at first, the diplomat said.
Over the past year, Bashar has emerged as a formidable factor in Syrian politics. Even though he held no formal office, he increased his public profile almost day by day, taking part in Syrian government missions and giving interviews to Western and Arab newspapers in which he discussed the need for change in Syria.
