How Baghdad Divided the Conquerors

A second basic problem was that Iraq, which has had consistent priorities, confronted a group, the Security Council, which has shifting interests and priorities. Iraq's goals have been steadfast since 1991. On the other hand, the consensus in the Security Council, while strong in 1991, has progressively weakened as other issues came up. There is also growing concern over the consequences of sanctions on Iraq's civilian population. Ironically, as UNSCOM achieved growing, but still partial, success, the willingness of the Security Council to enforce its resolutions and support UNSCOM attenuated. Judgments about the costs and benefits of achieving the remaining tasks were reevaluated.

Ultimately, it became clear that the Security Council could not agree on a mix of carrots or sticks that would coerce or convince Iraq to comply. Yet, it is also apparent that the Security Council cannot acknowledge its failure. One point on which consensus exists is the desire to avoid further weakening the council's authority by a blatant failure on Iraq. This motivated the fractious effort to write a new resolution with sufficient elasticity to shroud widely disparate objectives.

On one side, Russia, France and China cited UNSCOM as the problem. They attacked UNSCOM's objectivity; in particular, saying that former chairman Richard Butler was a pawn of Washington. Therefore, all UNSCOM's technical judgments about Iraqi noncompliance are suspect. They go so far as to accuse UNSCOM of fabricating evidence. At the same time, some of these same council members have aided Iraq in thwarting UNSCOM.

Other council members, including the United States, shifted focus from defending UNSCOM to halting or slowing the disintegration of sanctions that permit Iraq to export oil as long as revenues are used for humanitarian purchases.

Britain proposed a resolution that would preserve disarmament hurdles before sanctions could be lifted, but replacing UNSCOM with a new disarmament organization more like the United Nations--emphasizing geographic diversity of staff, transparency of operations and cultural sensitivity. The council approved this resolution, though Russia, France, China and Malaysia abstained.

Iraq, quite predictably, refuses to acknowledge this new resolution or accept the new organization. It sees no benefit in even pretending to cooperate since there are neither threats of ample magnitude nor evident rewards. So, while no member of the Security Council believes Iraq complies with the disarmament resolution, they can do nothing about it.