MOSCOW — War, the adage goes, is the pursuit of political ends by other means. But the Chechen war breaks the rule.
After nine months of fighting, Russia's military offensive against its southern republic of Chechnya is all but over. Russia controls more than 90% of Chechen territory, having pushed the separatist rebels to bases burrowed deep in the mountains.
By now, most countries would have used such a military advantage to force their adversaries to the negotiating table, launching peace talks to ensure that their political goals prevailed.
But in Russia, no negotiations are underway and none are in the offing. The reason is simple: The Russians don't have clear political goals in Chechnya, so they can't negotiate a political settlement.
"Russia doesn't know what to do with Chechnya," says Alexei Malashenko, an expert on ethnic conflicts who is affiliated with Russia's Institute of Oriental Studies and the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank. "It has never known, and it still doesn't know. This is why you can say that they've won the war but lost the conflict. And no one knows how to end the conflict. The conflict will never end."
The best that Russia can manage is half-steps. Earlier this month, President Vladimir V. Putin signed an order establishing an interim civilian administration in Chechnya that will report directly to the Kremlin. The decree formally erased the legal fiction that Chechnya is a functioning part of the Russian Federation, but it contained no glimmer of a vision for establishing a new government.
Presidential aides estimate that this "temporary" arrangement--in which elections and other trappings of democracy are formally suspended--will last at least two years.
Russian forces, meanwhile, are preparing for a long-term, low-intensity conflict. Every night, Russian soldiers come under attack, and commanders acknowledge that hundreds of armed rebel fighters have managed to re-infiltrate territory ostensibly controlled by Moscow's forces. Just Sunday, the Interior Ministry said two police buildings in Grozny, the Chechen capital, had come under fire overnight, although no injuries were reported.
'There Will Be No Peace Agreement'
Most Americans would have a hard time accepting the prospect of a drawn-out war of attrition on their own territory with no apparent political purpose. During his visit to Moscow two weeks ago, President Clinton made just that point, asking "whether any war can be won that requires large numbers of civilian casualties and has no political component bringing about a solution."
