ALEXANDRIA, VA. — One story the media have underreported this campaign season is Texas Gov. George W. Bush's strength among women. Could it be that they are in denial about Vice President Al Gore's gender-gap problems?
Consider the results of my poll, taken April 5-9. The Texas governor defeats the vice president 44%-37%. Bush leads among men, 47%-34%, and women, 41%-39%. Four years ago, former Sen. Bob Dole trailed President Bill Clinton among women 35%-53%. Bush is also doing substantially better among working women (Gore leads 43%-38%) than Dole (Clinton's advantage was 56%-34%).
Why are women voters drawn to Bush? Consider these factors:
* The political climate as measured by party identification is vastly improved. In my survey of 800 likely voters, a majority of men (31%) claimed loyalty to the GOP. Women were evenly divided among Republican, Democratic and independent. Working women identified with the Democratic Party by a margin of only 2%. This Democratic advantage among women is greatly reduced from previous years.
* The issue of the role of government is gender sensitive. When voters were asked, "Do you feel that government should do more to solve the country's problems or is government doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals?" 55% agreed with the latter, a trend consistent since the GOP takeover of Congress in 1994. With respect to gender, 59% of men believed government is doing too much, while 51% of women respondents felt that way. Bush believes in a limited role for government but draws the line at an interventionist government.
Some 53% of surveyed women said the federal government should spend more on health care and education and not change current tax rates. By contrast, 48% of men said spend more, while 44% said cut taxes.
Taken together, these results suggest that women are much more conflicted than men over the role of government, generally, and look to government as both a safety net, through Social Security and Medicare, and as a partner when it comes to, say, improving the quality of public education.
Notice that Bush, unlike his predecessors, has not called for the elimination of the Department of Education and is visibly passionate and committed when discussing the importance of education. These views, combined with Bush's engaging personality, help explain his current standing among women.
