There has been much recent reporting and commentary--fully justified--about the growing dangers in the Taiwan Strait. But in all the talk of arms sales and possible military confrontation, almost no attention has been given to a possible diplomatic solution.
It may be easy to conclude that in the current atmosphere a workable settlement between China and Taiwan is simply out of the question. Yet for exactly that reason it is time to start thinking seriously about what a settlement might look like. The alternatives are far too costly and too dangerous. Moreover, the assumption that the differences between Beijing and Taipei are unbridgeable may not stand up to close examination.
What are the likely minimum requirements of the three parties to the dispute? For China, it must be a firm assurance that Taiwan will not be lost beyond recovery, that a credible brake can be put on the island's perceived momentum toward sovereign independence. For Taiwan, it must be the preservation of the status quo of complete autonomy, amounting to de facto (but not de jure) independence. For the U.S., it must be the prevention of a military attack against Taiwan by China and with it the avoidance of a war in the Taiwan Strait.
A formula that would meet these absolute minimum requirements might comprise the following elements:
* Taiwan would explicitly recognize/acknowledge that there is one China and Taiwan is included within it and that sovereign independence is not a goal.
* Taiwan would abandon its efforts to secure membership in the United Nations or any other international organization in which membership is confined solely to sovereign nation-states.
(If necessary, these first two measures could be accompanied by certain symbolic gestures, such as flying the flag of the People's Republic of China from the highest point over the principal legislative and executive buildings in Taipei, but Beijing has already suggested even such a step may be unnecessary.)
* China would explicitly recognize/acknowledge that the authorities on Taiwan would retain complete and unchallenged control over the current territory and surrounding waters of Taiwan and over foreign and domestic policy involving the island--including the right to enter into international agreements and join some U.N. agencies. Taiwan would be designated not as a province or special zone but simply as "Taiwan, People's Republic of China."
