This report is based on projections of total U.S. box-office gross from a consensus of industry sources and studio financial models. The U.S. and Canadian returns (about 55% of gross) represent only 20% of a film's final revenue, which includes overseas theatrical, video and TV income. The industry marketing average of $30 million per film is factored into these profit equations, as is the relative strength of specific film genres in foreign markets. Results for the weekend of April 13-15:
* Universal has two split-rights deals, one with MGM for "Josie and the Pussycats," which will fall short for either company, and another with Miramax on "Bridget Jones's Diary," which is a win-win situation both here and abroad.
* "Kingdom Come" is a low-cost movie that will be profitable from tapping into its core African American audience.
* "Joe Dirt" should more than break even for Sony Pictures.
$$ Mega-Moneymakers ($50 million or more in profit)
Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Crouching Tiger Sony Classics 12 $15 $125 Spy Kids Dimension 1 35 110
$ Moneymakers ($10 million or more in profit)
Box- Estimated office cost, in Movie title Studio rank millions Along Came a Spider Paramount 2 $28 Bridget Jones's Diary Miramax/Universal 3 26 Joe Dirt Sony 4 16 Kingdom Come Fox Searchlight 6 7 Pokemon 3 Warner Bros. 8 3
Projected U.S. box-office* receipts,* Movie title in millions Along Came a Spider $60 Bridget Jones's Diary 40 Joe Dirt 25 Kingdom Come 25 Pokemon 3 20
? Toss-ups ($5 million or more in profit/loss)
Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Enemy at the Gates Paramount 9 $70 $48 Heartbreakers MGM 11 38 40 Blow New Line 5 36 42 Someone Like You Fox 10 23 26
Losers (more than $5 million)
Box- Estimated office cost, in Movie title Studio rank millions Josie and the Pussycats Universal/MGM 7 $22
Projected U.S. box-office* receipts,* Movie title in millions Josie and the Pussycats $14
Notes: Cost estimates are for production only. Only half of box-office receipts come back to the studio.
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