Not another harebrained theory on the search for Amelia Earhart's plane, Caltech professor Fred Culick groaned. But the phone message was from a producer for "Nova," the respected PBS science series, so he returned the call.
Four years later, Culick has confirmed an intriguing theory about what happened to Earhart's Lockheed Electra twin-engine plane. According to his calculations, the plane crashed in the icy depths of the central Pacific Ocean just short of Howland Island, roughly between Hawaii and Australia. The theory hints at a tantalizing possibility: 17,000 feet underwater, in a cold storage of sorts, the Electra's aluminum fuselage could be found intact, along with notebooks, maps and charts (human remains, though, corrode in saltwater).
Culick, with the help of graduate student Grant Swenson, provided the analysis at no charge. "It's just solving a mystery and putting to rest all these harebrained theories," said Culick, a professor of mechanical engineering and jet propulsion. "It's nice to get to the truth."
Armed with Culick's study of Earhart's fuel use and other new data, a deep-sea exploration company is leading one of two competing expeditions this year to try to crack one of the 20th century's greatest mysteries: Why did Earhart's plane vanish without a trace on July 2, 1937, in her attempt to fly around the world?
On Thursday, a Delaware-based nonprofit group plans to head to another central Pacific island, about 375 miles south of Howland Island. The International Group for Historic Aircraft Recovery is relying on satellite images showing a rust-colored shape that members hope indicate the remains of Earhart's plane off Nikumaroro island. The spot is exactly where a former resident of Nikumaroro had said that her father once pointed out an airplane wreckage on a reef at low tide.
The international group, an archaeological aviation foundation, believes that Earhart managed to land on a coral reef and made it to the then-uninhabitated island with her navigator, Fred Noonan. The two presumably died of starvation and exposure, according to the theory. Since 1988, the group has spent $2 million on five exploratory visits to Nikumaroro, turning up no conclusive evidence.
"It just doesn't happen like it does in Indiana Jones movies," said Richard Gillespie, the group's founder. "I'm trying to say, 'Look, folks, this is archaeology. This is plodding, mechanical stuff. Don't everyone hold your breath that we're going to come back with Amelia Earhart's airplane."'
