Redistricting will be the deciding factor in whether Assemblyman Tony Strickland (R-Moorpark) seeks a third and final term next year or switches course and runs for the Ventura County Board of Supervisors.
"My first choice is to stay in the state Assembly," the 31-year-old conservative said in an interview last week. "I fully anticipate running for reelection. But no one knows what that seat is going to look like."
Strickland first expressed interest in a county post last month, after Supervisor Frank Schillo of Thousand Oaks announced he would not seek reelection to the nonpartisan seat. Supervisors are paid $85,000 annually for four-year terms and are not subject to term limits.
The 37th Assembly District now includes Moorpark, Thousand Oaks, Camarillo, Oxnard and Port Hueneme.
But once a decade, after the census is taken, new district lines are drawn at the county, state and federal levels to account for population shifts. State lawmakers are expected to settle on new districts within the next month.
Politics plays an important role in the process. In drawing new boundaries, the controlling party typically tries to shore up its power while undermining reelection prospects for the opposing side.
In addition to a Democratic governor in California, the Democratic Party controls the Assembly with 50 of the 80 members, and the state Senate with 24 of the 40 members.
Strickland has good reason to consider himself a target in redistricting, said Herb Gooch, chairman of the political science department at Cal Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks.
Strickland is chairman of the Minority Caucus. He briefly floated his interest in a gubernatorial bid. And he sued Gov. Gray Davis earlier this year to force the release of power-related documents during the peak of the energy crisis.
But Gooch believes Strickland is equally driven by other considerations.
"I don't think it's a matter of him simply thinking 'Well, if they somehow district me out, then I'd go to the supervisors,' " he said.
"He's got to be looking around and saying 'I'm one of what almost looks like a permanent minority. I can win this time, but looking down the road . . . there's nowhere for me to go for several years.' "
Possibility of Other Offices
