Oscar Candidates Will Soon Be as Plentiful as Fallen Leaves

Is it really possible that Hollywood only made about four movies this year that weren't aimed at charter members of the Britney Spears fan club? Breathe a sigh of relief, because that's all about to change. About six weeks from now the movie business will perversely screech on the brakes, shift gears and start flooding the marketplace with adult (and I mean this in the best sense) movies.

Talk about feast or famine. It's only a matter of time before your friends will be complaining that there are too many good movies to choose from. In baseball, October is playoff time. But in Hollywood, October is the start of Oscar season, that all too-brief 10-week window when the studios shed their ripped-T-shirted summer wardrobe, put on their holiday tuxedos and opt for class over crass.

From Oct. 5 to year's end, not a weekend will go by without at least one Oscar-friendly film hitting the theaters. The closer to Christmas, the bigger the crowd. "It's a huge issue for everybody, having all these movies coming out at once," says DreamWorks marketing chief Terry Press. "Look at December--it's just a logjam of potentially great big-star films."

It's only August, but the Academy Awards handicapping has already begun; last week a veteran Oscar publicist faxed around an early peek at the 2001 race. Since the betting window has opened, here's my early line on the year's best picture candidates, culled from conversations with studio marketers and industry insiders. Picking a winner this early is a little like trying to handicap the Kentucky Derby at Christmas, but if Warner Bros. can put up "Harry Potter" billboards in July (it opens in mid-November), I figure I can take a whack at the best picture field before Labor Day.

At this stage, the handicapping is all about perception and pedigree--few of the films have been seen by anyone. As in political polling, our best picture favorites are the ones with the most name recognition: By year's end, expect a couple of sleepers to move up closer to the top.

Favorites

"Ali" (4-1): You'd have to go way back to "Gandhi" for the last time a biopic about an instantly recognizable figure won best picture (as opposed to a historical epic like "Braveheart"), but "Ali" packs a big punch. As played by Will Smith, its central figure is one of America's great modern-day heroes, an indefatigable warrior who wins, loses and reclaims his throne amid the turmoil of the '60s and early '70s. With respected director Michael Mann at the helm, this picture has the heft and commercial potential of a big award winner.