This report is based on projections of total U.S. box-office gross from a consensus of industry sources and studio financial models. The U.S. returns represent only 20% of a film's final revenue, which includes income from video, TV and overseas theatrical release. Typical industry marketing costs are factored into this profit analysis. Results for the weekend of Feb. 9-11:
* "Hannibal" looks to be a profitable movie, particularly overseas where co-financiers MGM and Universal expect the film to outgross its domestic tally. However, the studios will cede 30% of those profits to the film's gross participants.
* "Saving Silverman" should break even once ancillary revenue sources are included.
$$ Mega-Moneymakers ($50 million or more in profit)
Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Cast Away Fox/DreamWorks 5 $90 $220 Hannibal MGM/Universal 1 80 160 Save the Last Dance Paramount 6 13 85 Crouching Tiger Sony Classics 4 15 80
$ Moneymakers ($10 million or more in profit)
Box- Estimated office cost, in Movie title Studio rank millions Traffic USA 7 $50 The Wedding Planner Sony 2 28 Chocolat Miramax 10 25 Valentine Warner Bros. 8 12 O Brother Disney/Universal 9 26
Projected U.S. box-office* receipts,* Movie title in millions Traffic $90 The Wedding Planner 55 Chocolat 35 Valentine 22 O Brother 26
? Toss-ups ($5 million or more in profit/loss)
Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Finding Forrester Sony 12 $43 $48 Saving Silverman Sony 3 22 24
Losers (more than $5 million in loss)
Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office* office cost, in receipts,* Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Head Over Heels Universal 11 $14 $11
Notes: Cost estimates are for production only. Only half of box-office receipts come back to the studio.
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