WASHINGTON — As snowcaps begin to melt on the mountain peaks of Afghanistan, military strategists are preparing for renewed attacks by guerrilla fighters, who suffered heavy casualties in a massive assault last month but have historically returned with the spring poppies.
Echoing reports that he has been receiving from U.S. military and intelligence officials, President Bush on Wednesday warned that fighting would probably intensify as mountain passes and roads open and fresh vegetation provides cover for Al Qaeda fighters.
Unlike ground battles in the first phase of the war, which sometimes involved thousands of troops, spring will bring smaller skirmishes, hit-and-run attacks against military patrols, and targeted assassinations and terrorist assaults against civilians and facilities, intelligence officials predict.
Hours after Bush spoke, a gunman shot a U.S. soldier in the face as he was shopping in a marketplace in Kandahar. The assailant fled.
British commandos searching the mountains of eastern Paktia province said they had seen signs that Taliban and Al Qaeda troops were returning to the region.
"As the spring thaw comes, we expect cells of trained killers to try to regroup, to murder, create mayhem and try to undermine Afghanistan's efforts to build a lasting peace," Bush said at the Virginia Military Institute. "We know this from not only intelligence, but from the history of military conflict in Afghanistan. It's been one of initial success followed by long years of floundering and ultimate failure. We're not going to repeat that mistake."
The rising danger comes at an especially sensitive time, as Afghans begin trying to build a stable political system on the ruins of decades of war.
The countermeasures against the anticipated guerrilla warfare are likely to resemble the war on drugs in Colombia more than the large-scale air-and-ground combat that crushed Afghanistan's Taliban regime. The new strategies are likely to involve a smaller number of pinpoint airstrikes, ground patrols rather than attacks, and an emphasis on intelligence.
Concerns about the possibility of a renewed pro-Taliban push led to an assault this week by 1,700 British commandos and a smaller number of American and other coalition fighters in Paktia province, the site of last month's big battle known as Operation Anaconda.
