Bebel and other legal experts note that it remains to be seen what evidence the authorities ultimately may bring against Messier and any other Vivendi executives, and whether his claims will hold up to their scrutiny.
Messier's position may be undermined by, among other things, internal documents showing that he repeatedly clashed with Guillaume Hannezo, Vivendi's former chief financial officer. Hannezo expressed concern as early as last winter over the breakneck pace of Vivendi's acquisitions and debt, according to records seized by French authorities.
Some investors remain convinced that Messier bears prime responsibility for Vivendi's woes.
"He took too many risks with the money of others," said Colette Neuville, who heads a group of minority Vivendi shareholders. "He didn't give enough information ... about the risks he was taking."
During his tenure, Messier went on a buying spree that included snapping up Universal's movie studio, theme parks and record labels. That left Vivendi with a crippling $19-billion media debt load, which helped send the company's stock price tumbling more than 75%.
The vice chairman of Vivendi's board, Edgar Bronfman Jr., whose family is the largest single investor in the company and who led the boardroom coup against Messier, declined to comment. In the past, though, Bronfman has made it clear that he too feels betrayed by the 45-year-old former executive.
But Messier's European attorney, Olivier Metzner, said he is confident that Messier will be vindicated.
"They don't really know what they're looking for. It's kind of looking like a fishing expedition," Metzner said of the probes. "We're expecting the investigations in France to establish that all of the accusations made against Messier were ill-founded."
Messier, who is said to be close to hiring a U.S. criminal defense lawyer, declined to comment. At a recent news conference to promote his new book, however, he was defiant.
"Vivendi is no Enron," he said, referring to the fallen U.S. energy trader, "so I am not afraid to go to jail. Let the judges do their job."
A Vivendi Universal spokeswoman would say only that the company is cooperating fully with the investigations.
U.S. authorities are apparently seeking to determine whether Vivendi and its officers violated the anti-fraud provision of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. The provision prohibits a company or its representatives from concealing material information that would have affected investors' decisions on whether to buy or sell the company's stock. Violators face up to 10 years in prison and a maximum $1 million in fines. A company can be fined up to $2.5 million.
