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Losing Week Fuels Doubts on Recovery

NEWS ANALYSIS

Conflicting economic numbers, war fears and shaky tech and telecom prospects are keeping investors wary.

December 09, 2002|Josh Friedman | Times Staff Writer

By late winter or early spring, he said, the conflict could be settled, which would probably put U.S. businesses in more of a spending mood.

Friday's White House shake-up also could have a positive effect on the market, analysts said, because O'Neill was seen as a potential impediment to tax cuts and other fiscal stimulus measures.

"We've had a lot of monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates," Adelman said, noting that the Fed has slashed its benchmark interest rate to a four-decade low of 1.25%.

"What was missing was fiscal stimulus, and now we're going to get some."

One proposal that could give investors and the economy a boost, he said, is the elimination of "double taxation" on dividends, which are taxed as income when corporations record profit, then taxed again if distributed to shareholders in dividend form.

Such a move could send dividend yields, already on the rise, still higher, making stocks more attractive to investors.

A separate proposal to increase the amount of realized capital losses that can be written off against income -- currently $3,000 -- could boost consumer spending as well, Adelman said.

The Fed, which cut its benchmark interest rate by half of a point at its Nov. 6 meeting, isn't likely to notch the rate any lower when it gathers Tuesday, analysts say.

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