War's Unknown Financial Costs

No one knows exactly how much money it would cost to wage war against Iraq because President Bush has not said what kind of military attack he envisions, should he decide one is necessary.

But Bush's top economic advisor has said it could cost as much as $200 billion, a significant drain on a federal budget already swimming in red ink.

The Congressional Budget Office, while declining to predict an overall figure, estimates that combat could cost as much as $9 billion a month--a figure that dwarfs current fiscal concerns. The entire U.S. budget for the 2003 fiscal year is stalled in Congress over a $9-billion difference between Bush and congressional Democrats.

Lawmakers generally view the decision to go to war as a moral and strategic choice, not one that hinges on economic or budget policy. But they are still asking questions about what financial impact to expect--and those questions have been left largely unanswered during the congressional debate on Bush's push to confront Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

"Estimating the cost of a still-undefined and undeclared war with Iraq is a difficult undertaking, to say the least," Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) said recently. "But let's be clear. This debate should not be driven by how much it will cost U.S. taxpayers."

Rep. John M. Spratt Jr. (D-S.C.) said Wednesday it was appropriate that fiscal concerns were "conspicuously absent" from House debate. But he also urged lawmakers to recognize the pressures a war would put on a federal budget that is already projected to run $452 billion in deficits over the next four years.

"The cost, whatever the cost is, is not beyond our means in a $10-trillion economy. But it is beyond our budget," Spratt said.

One factor could ensure that the price tag for attacking Iraq would be greater for the United States than in the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

That conflict cost about $61 billion, but other countries in the international coalition put together by the United States contributed $48 billion.

It is uncertain that in a new fight with Iraq, Bush would be able to assemble such a broad coalition of allies and potential partners in sharing the cost of combat and postwar reconstruction.