TEHRAN — Reformist allies of Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said powerful hard-liners have grown increasingly anxious about the possibility of an American-led transitional government in Iraq.
"Hard-liners want to provoke the United States against Iran," a senior Iranian official said. "If the Americans start seriously threatening Iran, that gives them an excuse to crush reforms."
Iran already has begun to take steps to exert political and possibly military influence in Iraq by focusing on exiled Iraqis based in Iran.
Concerned that its sway over two leading Iraqi opposition groups is insufficient, Tehran is providing cash and arms to members who break away, opposition sources say.
Those who have split from the ranks of the two main Shiite groups opposed to Saddam Hussein's regime -- the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq and Al Dawa -- are now training in independent military camps in a northern province of Iran, the sources said.
"The political faction in Iran that wants to interfere in Iraq is afraid of what lies ahead and is preparing itself for future contingencies," said one well-placed opposition source.
Whether Iran uses the newly established Iraqi factions as proxies inside Iraq may depend on Shiite representation in a transitional government. Shiite Muslims make up the majority in Iran as well as Iraq.
It will also depend on how seriously Washington reacts to Iran's attempts to flex its muscle.
"The United States and Britain will watch this very closely," said a diplomat in Tehran. "There will be a very high level of concern if Iran begins to meddle in its neighbor's affairs."
Iraqi opposition sources said that influential Iranians who oppose the relatively free rein that the Iranian government has granted the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq have provoked a split in the Badr Brigade, the group's military arm.
A former high-ranking member of the Iraqi exile group, Abu Mahdi Mohandes, and a group of fighters from his hometown of Basra, left the Badr Brigade to train independently in a camp in the province of Kermanshah.
"Everyone wants a share in Iraq's liberation," said Sheik Ibrahim Hammoudi, a senior advisor to supreme council leader Ayatollah Mohsen Hakim. Hammoudi confirmed the split but downplayed the military potential of the severed faction.
He said that Mohandes has also gathered supporters from Iraqi refugees living in camps inside Iran, and that he seeks to return to Iraq and control an area of the south.
