Civic-minded rail proponents hope that the new Metro Rail Gold Line will eventually help reconfigure Los Angeles into a network of accessible urban villages dominated by a teeming downtown. This is wishful thinking.
Thirty years of data reveals a boom in both non-work travel and nontraditional commuting patterns. Employment in Los Angeles is dispersing, with local employment centers accounting for a dwindling share of jobs. Los Angeles' 60 miles of rail lines will not reverse the economic forces that drive these trends. In L.A., no rail system ever will.
Civic boosters can be forgiven their daydreams of a socially re-engineered Los Angeles, but the acts of salaried public officials cannot be so easily excused. For the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission and now the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, the rail plan is a betrayal of their public trust.
Private firms grow by cutting costs and selling products and services that people want. In public agencies, cost-control leads to smaller budgets. Public agencies often grow by bankrupting themselves with overcommitments, ensuring a continuing need for tax dollars but placing an ever-increasing strain on public revenues.
The MTA's predecessor agency recognized that an expensive rail plan was a superb growth strategy, and it pressed the electorate to tax itself to build rail. Voters were told that a rail system would decongest roads, clean the air and change land uses to provide Los Angeles residents with a pedestrian-friendly lifestyle. These cynical misrepresentations have diverted attention from truly meaningful transit options.
The simple, unfortunate truth is that every mile of track we lay squanders resources that could otherwise produce more mobility for more people. For a fraction of the cost of the Los Angeles rail system, the region could have fielded a vastly better bus system carrying many more passengers.
Rail's perceived advantages result from separating transit vehicles from other traffic. This provides a higher level of service that makes transit a more attractive option for middle- and upper-income riders who have no intention of ever boarding an MTA bus. Unfortunately, most of this untapped transit market will never reside or work in the vicinity of a rail line.
