In a normal election, polling offers some measure of clarity, an imperfect assessment of who is ahead and who is lagging at a given point in the campaign.
But the gubernatorial recall campaign is so complex, the field so crowded with candidates, that it may prove impossible for pollsters to sort through the confusion and gauge how the race is shaping up, according to polling experts and campaign officials.
In this race, experts say, be cautious of polls.
"The pollsters may be more confused than the voters themselves," said K.B. Forbes, spokesman for the Bill Simon campaign. "Their margin of error may be higher, and I think they may be scratching their heads."
Polling, Forbes said "will not be a reliable indicator."
But clearly, the pollsters will be heard. Though the deadline for filing was not until Saturday, polls were already being taken. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend reported that Gov. Gray Davis was likely to be recalled and replaced by actor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
That poll, conducted as the field was crystallizing, underscores the difficulty of polling in a fast-moving campaign with two interconnected ballot questions and a gargantuan list of candidates. The poll solicited opinions on some candidates who ultimately stayed out the race -- former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez and state Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi.
David W. Moore, senior editor of the Gallup Poll, said the organization had wanted to get an "early read" on how people perceived the prospective candidates. The pollsters asked respondents about individual candidates rather than asking them to choose among the contenders -- a better way to cope with the prospect that people would choose not to run.
"I think it provides a pretty valid look at the way people are reacting initially to the candidates," Moore said. "It doesn't necessarily mean that, a week later, after things have settled down and the campaigns have begun, we would get the same results."
Polling in California is never easy. It is a huge, diverse state where a good chance exists that the person picking up the phone will not speak the same language as the pollster making the call.
Compounding the difficulties are the unanswered questions surrounding the race. No one knows what the turnout will be on Oct. 7. Previous special elections, experts warn, are not a reliable guide for a first-ever recall election that is getting international attention.
